Development of an Indicator Model for Anticipation of Strategy Implementation Failures

M. Riesener, C. Dölle, J. Tittel, G. Schuh, Maximilian Reuß, E. Rebentisch
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Abstract

Strategy is the fundamental means to plan and obtain a competitive advantage. Studies suggest that an extensive gap exists between strategy intent and strategy implementation outcomes, indicated by a low rate of achieved objectives. Especially manufacturing companies face a situation of shorter strategy-to-implementation timespans. Frontloading and the customer-induced demand for continuous innovation lead to shorter product life cycles and force manufacturing companies to adapt quickly. Whereas the number of tools and models for strategy design and good implementation practices is vast, attempts to quantify and anticipate strategy implementation failure risk are almost nonexistent. This paper introduces a new model based on quantifiable and easily available indicators for a topic that remains otherwise solely qualitatively addressed in literature. Following a use-case adapted selection of indicators, a methodology for analysis and prediction is proposed using logistic regression analysis. The model's performance is tested and validated with publicly available data from 14 car manufacturers over 20 years. The results show a statistically significant predictive power for strategy implementation failures and suggest the future use of the model as a tool in strategy implementation processes.
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预测战略实施失败的指标模型的开发
战略是规划和获得竞争优势的基本手段。研究表明,战略意图和战略实施结果之间存在着巨大的差距,实现目标的比例很低。尤其是制造业企业,面临着从战略到实施的时间跨度越来越短的局面。前期负荷和客户对持续创新的需求导致产品生命周期缩短,迫使制造公司快速适应。尽管用于战略设计和良好实施实践的工具和模型的数量是巨大的,但量化和预测战略实施失败风险的尝试几乎不存在。本文介绍了一种基于可量化和易于获得的指标的新模型,该模型用于一个主题,否则仅在文献中进行定性处理。在用例适应的指标选择之后,使用逻辑回归分析提出了分析和预测的方法。该模型的性能经过了20多年来14家汽车制造商的公开数据的测试和验证。研究结果显示,对战略实施失败具有统计上显著的预测能力,并建议未来在战略实施过程中使用该模型作为工具。
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