Growth Impact of Insecurity on the Nigerian Economy

Kosy Cletus Aghaulor
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Abstract

This research work investigated restructuring national security for economic growth in Nigeria for the period 1981 to 2017. In a bid to actualize the main objective of this study, a good number of literature materials were reviewed and data were collected from secondary sources such as the various editions of CBN Statistical Bulletin. The data were analyzed using Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) Unit Root test, Johansen co-integration test, Error Correction Model. The selected variables (i.e. Gross Domestic product, Life expectancy at birth, terrorism risk index, discomfort index, adult literacy rate, corruption perception index and unemployment rate) had a cointegrating relationship indicating long-run relationship among the variables. The result of the Error Correction Mechanism (ECM) had the expected negative sign and statistically significant at the 0.05 level, an indication that any disequilibrium in the system will be adjusted. Based on the conclusion made, it is recommended that government should restructure and decentralize security architecture, increase capital expenditure on security and provide the enabling environment for people to work especially in the area of security of lives and property. This is against the back-drop that no meaningful economic activity can thrive in the face of insecurity. 1.
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不安全对尼日利亚经济增长的影响
本研究调查了1981年至2017年期间尼日利亚重组国家安全促进经济增长的情况。为了实现本研究的主要目标,我们查阅了大量的文献资料,并从二手资料中收集数据,如CBN统计公报的各个版本。采用增广Dickey-Fuller (ADF)单位根检验、Johansen协整检验、误差修正模型对数据进行分析。所选变量(即国内生产总值、出生时预期寿命、恐怖主义风险指数、不适感指数、成人识字率、腐败感知指数和失业率)具有协整关系,表明变量之间存在长期关系。误差修正机制(Error Correction Mechanism, ECM)的结果为预期的负号,且在0.05水平上具有统计学意义,表明系统中的任何不平衡都将得到调整。在此基础上,建议政府调整和下放安全架构,增加安全资本支出,为人们提供有利的工作环境,特别是在生命和财产安全领域。在这种背景下,没有任何有意义的经济活动能够在不安全的情况下蓬勃发展。1.
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