Social Distancing? The Impact of the Covid-19 Pandemic on Cross-Strait Relations

Abstract

Owing to changes in Taiwan’s domestic politics, the PRC’s turn to a more assertive foreign policy, and the rapid deterioration in Sino-US affairs, cross-Strait relations were already at their lowest point in recent history when the Covid-19 pandemic broke out. This article analyses how the interplay between these already existing factors and the pandemic have impacted relations between Beijing and Taipei. The analysis is conducted on three levels: Taiwan’s domestic politics; cross-Strait perceptions and interactions; and changes in the international space available for Taiwan. It is argued that the pandemic has primarily accelerated and amplified trends already in place rather than introduce fundamentally new factors. Taiwan’s successful management of the pandemic has stabilized DPP rule and given the government enlarged policy space. It has further entrenched negative views of the other on both sides of the Strait and decreased crossStrait social contact. The country’s success has also provided a boost to Taiwan’s manoeuvring in the increasingly fragmented international economic and political space that has resulted from intensifying great power competition.