Deterministic and Probabilistic Solar Power Forecasts: A Review on Forecasting Models

Abstract

The installed capacity of solar power generation has been increased in recent years. The intermittent characteristics of solar generation pose large challenges on power system operations. Therefore, accurate solar power forecasting technologies are significant in modern power systems. In this paper, various solar power forecasting methods are summarized and compared. They include time series statistical methods, physical methods, ensemble methods and others. In addition, this paper summaries the optimization methods for designing the parameters of forecasting models. This work also investigates important factors that influences solar power forecasts and then discusses the input selection for PV power forecasting models. Due to forecasting uncertainties, the comparison between probabilistic and deterministic forecasting models is also discussed. Finally, the data pre-processing and post-pro-cessing techniques are also summarized in this paper.