Impact of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) on Housing Affordability Index: Vector Autoregressive Model

Anderson Chen Lu Chua, J. Kueh, S. Yong, J. Yau, Audrey Liwan
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Abstract

This paper aims to investigate the short and long term association between Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and overall consumer affordability in Malaysia Real Estate Sector using Vector Autoregressive model. Sample period used is 2009:Q1 to 2017:Q4. FDI is scapegoated as the leading cause of decreasing affordability in real estate. In most cases, FDI on real estate contributes to the rising income of the country. Increasing income promotes demand to a higher threshold level. Thus, theoretically will cause housing price to increase. Through this study, evidence of no cointegration and absence of Granger causality converge towards deficiency of relationship among FDI and Housing Affordability Index (HAI). Findings pointed out FDI is not the cause of decreasing HAI.
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外商直接投资对住房负担能力指数的影响:向量自回归模型
本文旨在利用向量自回归模型研究外国直接投资(FDI)与马来西亚房地产行业整体消费者负担能力之间的短期和长期关系。样本周期为2009年第一季度至2017年第四季度。外国直接投资被认为是房地产负担能力下降的主要原因。在大多数情况下,房地产方面的外国直接投资有助于提高该国的收入。收入的增加将需求提升到更高的门槛水平。这样,理论上会导致房价上涨。通过本研究,FDI与住房负担能力指数(HAI)之间不存在协整和格兰杰因果关系的证据趋于不足。研究结果表明,FDI不是导致HAI下降的原因。
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