Predicting Poverty Using Geospatial Data in Thailand

Abstract

This study examines an alternative approach in estimating poverty by investigating whether readily available geospatial data can accurately predict the spatial distribution of poverty in Thailand. It also compares the predictive performance of various econometric and machine learning methods such as generalized least squares, neural network, random forest, and support vector regression. Results suggest that intensity of night lights and other variables that approximate population density are highly associated with the proportion of population living in poverty. The random forest technique yielded the highest level of prediction accuracy among the methods considered, perhaps due to its capability to fit complex association structures even with small and medium-sized datasets.