Development of Planning-Stage Feasibility-Assessment Model for Extension Remodeling Projects of Old Apartment Buildings

Won-kyung Koh, I. Yu, Dae-woon Jeong
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Abstract

The government has continuously amended and developed laws for the vitalization of remodeling apartment buildings against the backdrop aging buildings. Despite such efforts, however, extension remodeling has not yet been used. Even though there are various issues causing this shortcoming, the present study focused on the fact that there is no instrument for reliable feasibility analysis and decision-making in the early stage of remodeling projects, thus proposing a remodeling project feasibility-assessment model. Generally, a feasibility (profitability) judgement is made after a design proposal is derived, and because decision-making for the implementation of remodeling projects is determined at the initial stage of implementation committee, a feasibility analysis model for projects at the planning stage is necessary. In this work, construction cost, project cost, financial expenses, and general sales revenues are calculated using remodeling project variables derived through existing apartment complex information, consultation, and research, and an algorithm was developed that can calculate approximate return on investment and the share of expenses of resident union members using the calculation results. In addition, the applicability of the model was tested by applying the developed early stage project feasibility analysis model to three cases already implemented. When the model was applied to three cases, the errors between the values predicted by the model and the actual values of the cases were 5% or less, indicating high reliability of the model. The model is expected to become a useful tool in practice if the applicability of the model is further proven by increasing the number of cases in the future. The project feasibility-assessment model developed in the present study will enable smooth implementation of projects by supporting residents' rapid decision-making. Moreover, if the model is variously applied by region, it is also expected to contribute to the policy establishment of local governments that identify the scale of apartment complexes in which extension remodeling projects are possible and support the remodeling. © 2019 The Authors. Published by Budapest University of Technology and Economics & Diamond Congress Ltd. Peer-review under responsibility of the scientific committee of the Creative Construction Conference 2019.
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旧公寓扩建改造项目规划阶段可行性评价模型的建立
政府以老旧建筑为背景,不断修改和制定了《公寓改造活化法》。然而,尽管做出了这样的努力,扩展重塑尚未得到应用。尽管造成这一缺陷的原因有很多,但本研究主要针对改造项目早期缺乏可靠的可行性分析和决策工具的问题,提出了改造项目可行性评估模型。一般来说,可行性(盈利能力)判断是在设计方案提出后进行的,而改造项目的实施决策是在实施委员会的初始阶段确定的,因此需要在规划阶段对项目进行可行性分析模型。本文利用现有公寓小区信息、咨询、研究所得的改造项目变量,计算了建筑成本、工程成本、财务费用和一般销售收入,并开发了一种算法,可以根据计算结果计算出近似的投资回报率和居民工会成员的费用分担。此外,通过将开发的早期项目可行性分析模型应用于已实施的三个案例,验证了模型的适用性。将模型应用于3个案例时,模型预测值与案例实际值的误差在5%以内,表明模型具有较高的可靠性。如果未来通过增加案例的数量进一步证明模型的适用性,该模型有望在实践中成为有用的工具。本研究建立的项目可行性评估模型将通过支持居民的快速决策,使项目顺利实施。此外,如果按地区进行不同程度的应用,预计将有助于地方自治团体制定政策,确定有可能进行扩建改造的公寓园区的规模,并支持改造。©2019作者。由布达佩斯科技经济大学和钻石大会有限公司出版。由2019创意建设大会科学委员会负责同行评审。
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