Gravity, Scale and Exchange Rates

James E. Anderson, Mykyta Vesselovsky, Y. Yotov
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引用次数: 14

Abstract

We develop a structural gravity model that introduces scale effects in bilateral trade. Scale effects and incomplete passthrough give two channels through which exchange rates have real effects on trade patterns. Estimates from Canadian provincial trade data identify these effects through their interaction with the US border. We find statistically and quantitatively significant economies of scale in cross-border trade in almost 2/3 of sectors. Real effects of exchange rate changes on trade are found for 12 of 19 goods sectors and none of 9 services sectors.
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重力、规模和汇率
我们建立了一个结构性重力模型,引入了双边贸易的规模效应。规模效应和不完全传递提供了汇率对贸易模式产生实际影响的两个渠道。根据加拿大各省贸易数据的估计,通过它们与美国边境的相互作用,可以确定这些影响。我们发现,在近三分之二的行业中,跨境贸易的规模经济在统计上和数量上都很显著。19个商品部门中有12个部门发现汇率变化对贸易的实际影响,9个服务部门中没有发现汇率变化对贸易的实际影响。
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