Risk assessment in railway traffic planning - assumptions for the method

Abstract

Every activity, including within the railway system, is subject to risk, i.e., the possibility of uncertain phenomena that may affect it (both positively and negatively). One of the operational subsystems of the Union Railway System is railway traffic. It consists of four processes - the second is traffic planning. This process is also subject to risk. As it directly relates to traffic safety, conducting research and analyzing the risks involved makes sense. This article aims to develop the assumptions for a risk assessment method in railway traffic planning. This method, once created, will be used to carry out a risk assessment of the indicated process from two points of view: the railway undertaking and the infrastructure manager. As a result of the considerations, it was assumed that risk identification would be performed using the risk description principle from the M_o_R methodology. The risk estimation will be adapted to use a probabilistic risk assessment model. This assessment will be performed using the Monte Carlo simulation method, which is strongly recommended for use by the Office of Railway Transport (the national railway safety body).