Development of a mathematical model to estimate negative impacts on human health with the help of risk maps and Fuzzy membership functions

J. Rapp, Matthias Grossler, Melanie Platz, E. Niehaus
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Abstract

The health situation especially in developing countries must be improved. This is the aim of several governmental and nongovernmental organizations. To improve the health situation it is important to know about the spatial and temporal distribution of a specific risk. The existing risk, e.g. for the outbreak of a disease, can be visualized with risk maps. We developed a mathematical method, with which it is possible to estimate the existing risk at a specific location. Because of the use of Fuzzy Logic it is possible to combine information about the existing risk with other data based on Fuzzy Logic, like the spatial distribution of medical resources. Thus it is possible to take effective countermeasures to improve the health situation.
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建立数学模型,利用风险图和模糊隶属函数估计对人类健康的负面影响
必须改善卫生状况,特别是发展中国家的卫生状况。这是一些政府和非政府组织的目标。为了改善健康状况,了解特定风险的空间和时间分布非常重要。现有的风险,例如疾病爆发的风险,可以通过风险图可视化。我们开发了一种数学方法,用它来估计特定地点的现有风险是可能的。由于模糊逻辑的使用,可以将现有风险信息与基于模糊逻辑的其他数据(如医疗资源的空间分布)结合起来。因此,有可能采取有效的对策来改善健康状况。
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