EFFECTS OF SELECTED MACROECONOMIC VARIABLES ON STOCK MARKET PERFORMANCE IN NIGERIA

Abstract

In spite of the vital role played by the stock exchange market in the overall national development, it is still performing below expectations in Nigeria owing to several macroeconomic factors. The main objective of this study is to investigate the effects of selected macroeconomic variables on stock market performance in Nigeria. The study employed time-series data obtained from the Central Bank of Nigeria's statistical bulletin and World Development Indicators. Stock market performance was measured using the all-shares index while the identified macroeconomic variables included GDP growth, broad money supply, exchange rate, savings interest rate, and inflation rate. An Autoregressive Distributive Lag (ARDL) estimation technique was used to establish the long run relationship among the variables, and it was revealed that a long run relationship existed among the variables in the estimated model. The result shows that macroeconomic variables such as gross domestic product, broad money supply, exchange rate, and savings interest rate have a positive effect on stock market performance in Nigeria. On the other hand, the results showed that the inflation rate has a negative effect on stock market performance in Nigeria. Predicated on the result, the study recommended that policies to increase gross domestic product, exchange rate, interest rate, and money supply should be implemented because they can lead to an improvement in the performance of the stock market, while the inflation rate should be maintained at a single digit to prevent its negative effect on the performance of the stock market in Nigeria.