Research of Epidemic Dynamics Model Considering Individual Movements and Urban Areas

Abstract

With the rapid spread of COVID-19, hundreds of millions of people worldwide have been infected. In order to cope with the epidemic, experts from various countries have carried out a lot of research works. Most of these works chose to use the traditional SEIR model, but the traditional model doesn't consider the individual's movement in the city. Based on the transmission characteristics of COVID-19, this paper optimized the traditional SEIR model by combining the in-depth mining and processed multiple data, such as the real epidemic data published by some official organizations, as well as data with certain credibility obtained from reference papers, journals or newspapers. Compared with the traditional SEIR model, the proposed model takes into account the impact of individuals' movement and the division of urban functional areas. The outcomes can play a certain role in the prediction and analysis of the spread of the epidemic in cities with regular individuals' movements and functions of urban areas.