Deadlock or new opening? Current state and prospects for development of Lithuanian-Belarusian relations

Abstract

The purpose of this article is to discuss the trajectory of Belarusian-Lithuanian relations with a particular focus on the period after the 2020 Belarusian presidential election, which resulted in a change in international relations in the region. This was the moment that redefined the Lithuanian-Belarusian relations, which until 2020 were satisfactory for both sides (especially in the economic aspect). However, Lithuania began to pursue a reactive policy of promoting the democratisation of Belarus and provided multi-level support to Belarusian opposition forces. The current problems in bilateral relations (e.g., the future of Belarusian Nuclear Power Plant located in Astravyets) have been put on the agenda for discussion at the EU level, while the instruments of a hybrid conflict in the form of an influx of immigrants into Lithuania, controlled by the Belarusian regime, have become a key issue for the future prospects of relations between Belarus and Lithuania.