Notice of RetractionEmpirical Analysis on the Volatility Transmission of RMB Exchange Rate Under the 2007 Subprime Crisis

Jiaping Zhang, Ridong Hu
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Abstract

Since the reform of RMB exchange rate regime in 2005, RMB exchange rate is much more flexible and volatile. The status and influence of RMB are greater with the sustained growth of Chinese economy. This paper investigates the international linkage between RMB exchange rate and other currency exchange rates, especially Asian currencies using the multivariate GARCH model. To investigate the impact of the financial crisis caused by the subprime crisis, we divide the sample into two parts: pre-crisis period and crisis period. Finally, we find that there is evidently shock transmission of RMB during the crisis and give a few concluding remarks and some suggestions for future research on volatility transmission of RMB exchange rate under empirical analysis.
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2007年次贷危机下人民币汇率波动传导的实证分析
自2005年人民币汇率形成机制改革以来,人民币汇率的灵活性和波动性大大增强。随着中国经济的持续增长,人民币的地位和影响越来越大。本文运用多元GARCH模型考察了人民币汇率与其他货币汇率,特别是与亚洲货币汇率的国际联系。为了研究次贷危机对金融危机的影响,我们将样本分为危机前和危机时期两部分。最后,我们发现危机期间人民币存在明显的震荡传导,并在实证分析的基础上对人民币汇率波动传导的未来研究进行了总结和建议。
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