Relationship of the brightness temperature anomalies of the lower troposphere with the climate indices on the Southern Urals

Abstract

This paper presents an analysis of the average monthly temperature of the lower troposphere (TLT) according to satellite sensing data for the period 1979–2017 in the Southern Urals. In order to study the space-time structure of TLT, the method of decomposition of the temperature series into empirical orthogonal components (EOC) was used. A correlation analysis of the link between the identified EOC for winter and summer seasons and indices of large-scale modes of natural climate variability in the Northern hemisphere was carried out. The first leading EOC, which describes a negative temperature trend, makes the major contribution to the overall variability. For winter, the leading mode is associated with the North Atlantic oscillation. For summer, a significant contribution of the Atlantic multi-decadal oscillation and the index of the Arctic sea ice concentration anomalies is revealed, which can be used to improve the reliability of the future scenarios of the regional climate change. The results suggest a significant impact of natural climatic variability on the temperature regime and a possible difficulty in identifying the anthropogenic component of climate change in the studied region.