Simulation of the Urban Expansion of the El Jadida City

Abstract

Since 1917, the population of the city of El Jadida (formerly Mazagan) has continued to increase remarkably especially in specific periods. This could be explained by deterministic factors including the rural exodus, the port, the industrial center of Jorf Lasfar, the university complex Chouaib Doukkali, the train and bus station and the provincial hospital. These factors are referred to in our work as centers of attraction. This increase has generated an important urban sprawl. The question that arises: Is this expansion due to arbitrary effects or based on scientific methods? After reviewed literature, it has been noted out that there are several methods and mathematical models governing territorial development, like the cell model applied to the Mexican town TIJUANA by Michel Le Page. In this research, we propose a simulation with ArcGIS to determine the evolution of the urban occupation of the city of El Jadida. To this end, we have used satellite images from the period 1982 to 2018. These images have undergone subsequent treatments to identify urban areas. Analysis of the results showed that evolution is made to the South (To the industrial area Jorf Lasfar) and to the South West (To the university complex).