Research on Big Data Risk Control Model of Venture Capital

Boao Cui
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Abstract

The two main characteristics of venture capital are high risk and participation in management. Risk identification and risk evaluation before investing, risk supervise and control are important process that affect the success of venture investment. First of all, a risk evaluation index system is constructed. Partial correlation analysis is used to explore the indicators that can significantly affect the success of a company's investment, and to provide suggestions for the types of risks that start-ups should focus on controlling during the startup period. Then the principal component analysis method and the Logistic regression analysis method are combined to predict the success rate of investment, which can make up for the deficiency of the Logistic model and improve the prediction accuracy rate. Then use the test set data to calculate the accuracy of the model, and conduct an Omnibus test of the model coefficients to verify the significance of the equation. Then the SE-DEA model is constructed to calculate and compare the efficiency values of enterprises that accept different levels of post-investment services, and test the robustness of the SE-DEA model by adjusting the input and output indicators. Then through the Mann-Whitney U test and analysis, it is concluded that if the post-investment service is to have a good effect, how VC should choose the degree of intervention according to the state of the enterprise. That is to say, which indicators of the enterprise can be optimized by VC intervention in management. Finally, the models are evaluated and future research prospects in related fields are proposed.
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风险投资大数据风险控制模型研究
风险投资的两个主要特征是高风险和参与管理。投资前的风险识别与风险评估、风险监督与控制是影响风险投资成功与否的重要环节。首先,构建了风险评价指标体系。通过偏相关分析,探索对企业投资成功有显著影响的指标,为创业公司在创业阶段应重点控制的风险类型提供建议。然后将主成分分析方法与Logistic回归分析方法相结合进行投资成功率预测,弥补了Logistic模型的不足,提高了预测准确率。然后利用测试集数据计算模型的精度,并对模型系数进行综合检验,验证方程的显著性。然后构建SE-DEA模型,计算并比较接受不同投资后服务水平的企业的效率值,并通过调整投入产出指标来检验SE-DEA模型的稳健性。然后通过Mann-Whitney U检验和分析,得出如果要使投后服务产生良好的效果,VC应该如何根据企业的状态选择干预程度。也就是说,企业的哪些指标可以通过VC干预管理来优化。最后,对模型进行了评价,并对未来相关领域的研究进行了展望。
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