Measurement of the Reasonable Leverage Level in China's Power Industry

Jing Shi, Ping Chen, Tiantian Chen
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Abstract

The power industry is a typical industry with a high leverage ratio. The article takes 51 listed companies in the power industry in China as the research object, uses financial data from the first quarter of 2016 to the fourth quarter of 2020 as observations, and uses operating performance as measurement indicator to measure the reasonable level of industry micro-level leverage, and tries to provide more accurate guidance for the power industry's deleveraging activities, so as to promote its goal of reducing leverage, stabilizing leverage, and optimizing leverage, thereby achieving high-quality and stable development of China's power industry. Through empirical research such as panel regression and panel threshold regression, it is found that the reasonable threshold of the leverage ratio of the power industry is 44.66%, and there is an "inverted U" relationship between the leverage ratio of the power industry and operating performance. Based on the research conclusions,several suggestions are put forward:1.Appropriate debt management and optimization of debt methods;2. Intensify supply-side structural reforms to improve industry efficiency.
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中国电力行业合理杠杆水平的测度
电力行业是典型的高杠杆行业。本文以中国电力行业51家上市公司为研究对象,以2016年第一季度至2020年第四季度的财务数据为观察对象,以经营业绩为衡量指标,衡量行业微观层面杠杆的合理水平,试图为电力行业的去杠杆活动提供更准确的指导,从而促进其降杠杆、稳杠杆、稳杠杆的目标。优化杠杆,实现电力行业高质量稳定发展。通过面板回归、面板阈值回归等实证研究发现,电力行业杠杆率的合理阈值为44.66%,电力行业杠杆率与经营绩效之间存在“倒U”关系。基于研究结论,本文提出了几点建议:1。1 .合理管理债务,优化债务方式;深化供给侧结构性改革,提高产业效率。
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