How Many Philistines and Other Outside Groups Arrived in Canaan?

Abstract

The number of the Sea People arriving into Canaan at the end of the Late Bronze Age is heavily disputed: from a few thousand to ca. 25,000. Unfortunately, the archaeological evidence cannot support or refute any of these paradigms. To this end, a model for determining population demographics during periods of scarce archaeological information is presented. The model (i) interpolates the total population during the Iron Age I, including the newly arrived peoples, based on data available from the two adjacent archaeological periods, for which there is a better demographic understanding: the Late Bronze IIB and the Iron Age II, and (ii) subtracting that result from the theoretical scenario assuming zero immigration or emigration. The above theoretical outcomes are examined alongside the archaeological and historical records of the three mentioned periods. The primary traits of the model are: 1. All the input data should be derived solely from archaeological excavations and survey reports, followed by an error estimation. 2. All the mathematical-statistical techniques used will be well recognized and frequently used within these two scientific disciplines. The final estimate for the Philistines and other non-local populations during the Iron Age I achieved here is ca. 24,000, assuming a specific error of 12%. Keyboards: Iron Age I, Philistines, Shephelah, Coastal Plain, Demographic.