WILDFIRES FORECAST PERFORMANCE IN ALBANIA DURING SUMMER 2020

O. Jaupaj, K. Zaimi
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引用次数: 1

Abstract

"The Wildfire Risk Forecast (WRF) remains a daily procedure conducted by the National Centre for Forecast and Monitoring of Natural Hazards (NCFMNH), which is part of the Institute of Geosciences, Energy, Water and Environment (IGEWE) of Albania. WRF is generated on daily basis, by the country’s administrative unit (prefecture) and disseminated to the General Directorate of Civil Emergencies (GDCE) in order to help better coordinate fire-fighting activities. This study investigates the accuracy of the Wildfire Risk Forecasts during the 2020 summer season by analysing fire occurrences over each prefecture of Albania for two components of wildfire forecast Performance, i.e., The Prefecture Hit Probability (PHP) and the Average Fires per Hit (AFH). The study has revealed a “VERY GOOD” Performance for the “High Risk Level” forecast alerts, “GOOD” Performance for the “Moderate Risk Level” and “Low Risk Level” forecast alerts, and VERY GOOD” Performance for the “No Risk Level”"
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野火预测了阿尔巴尼亚2020年夏季的表现
“野火风险预报(WRF)仍然是阿尔巴尼亚地球科学、能源、水和环境研究所(IGEWE)下属的国家自然灾害预报和监测中心(NCFMNH)进行的一项日常程序。WRF由国家的行政单位(州)每天编制,并分发给民事紧急情况总局,以帮助更好地协调消防活动。本研究通过分析阿尔巴尼亚每个州的火灾发生情况,分析野火预测性能的两个组成部分,即州命中概率(PHP)和每次命中平均火灾(AFH),调查了2020年夏季野火风险预测的准确性。该研究显示,“高风险水平”预报警报的表现为“非常好”,“中等风险水平”和“低风险水平”预报警报的表现为“好”,“无风险水平”预报警报的表现为“非常好”。
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