Failure probability estimation of transmission lines during typhoon based on tropical cyclone wind model and component vulnerability model

2017 IEEE PES Asia-Pacific Power and Energy Engineering Conference (APPEEC) Pub Date : 2017-11-01 DOI:10.1109/APPEEC.2017.8308936

Y. H. Yang, Y. Xin, J. J. Zhou, W. Tang, B. Li

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引用次数: 14

Abstract

Typhoons have significant impacts on power transmission lines along coastlines. To improve the power system resilience and minimize economic losses, this paper develops a new method considering the spatial and temporal impact of typhoon, to evaluate the failure probability of transmission lines, based on a tropical cyclone (TC) wind model and a component vulnerability model. The model of TC wind depicts the wind field within the last closed isobar. The component vulnerability model is a fragility curve of transmission lines, which expresses the failure probability using the effective speed, is employed to connect the risk of failure with the typhoon situation. In addition, the Monte-Carlo method is applied to calculate the final breakdown probability of transmission lines. The proposed method is utilized to evaluate the failure probability of transmission lines in China during typhoon Vicente based on a numerical example, and the numerical results verify the presented method is effective.

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基于热带气旋模型和部件易损性模型的台风期间输电线路故障概率估计

台风对沿海输电线路的影响很大。为了提高电力系统的恢复能力，最大限度地减少经济损失，本文基于热带气旋(TC)风模型和部件易损性模型，提出了一种考虑台风时空影响的输电线路故障概率评估方法。TC风模式描述了最后一个闭合等压线内的风场。构件易损性模型是输电线路的易损性曲线，用有效速度表示线路的失效概率，将线路的失效风险与台风情况联系起来。此外，还应用蒙特卡罗方法计算了输电线路的最终击穿概率。将该方法应用于台风“维森特”期间中国输电线路的故障概率计算，数值计算结果验证了该方法的有效性。

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2017 IEEE PES Asia-Pacific Power and Energy Engineering Conference (APPEEC)

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