The Swedish business cycle, 1969-2013

Louise Holm
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Abstract

The aim of this paper is to apply a non-stationary, non-parametric method to date the Swedish business cycle where no official dating method exists, defined as the common dynamic of some macroeconomic time series. The method draws on a paper where the business cycle for the euro area by Holm (2011) was found and the method worked well and closely matched the dates found by the Centre for Economic Policy Research, CEPR. In this paper five recessions were found for Sweden in the 1969-2013 period. Keywords: Business cycle, non-parametric smoothing, non-stationarity JEL: C14, C32, E32
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瑞典商业周期,1969-2013
本文的目的是应用一种非平稳、非参数的方法来确定瑞典商业周期的日期,其中没有官方的日期方法,定义为一些宏观经济时间序列的共同动态。该方法借鉴了Holm(2011)发现的欧元区商业周期的一篇论文,该方法运行良好,与经济政策研究中心(CEPR)发现的日期非常吻合。本文发现瑞典在1969年至2013年期间经历了五次衰退。关键词:经济周期,非参数平滑,非平稳性JEL: C14, C32, E32
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