Climate Change and Aman Rice Yield Nexus in the North-Western Part of Bangladesh: Using Quantile Regression

Abstract

Aman is a rain-fed crop that is the second-largest rice crop in Bangladesh in general and in particular, in the study area with respect to the volume of production. It also carries significant value in the case of food security as well as livelihood options for many farmers. At this backdrop, the study focuses on exploring the relationship between climate change variables (Average Maximum Temperature, Average Minimum Temperature, Total rainfall,  Average Relative Humidity) and Yield of Aman in Bogra and Joypurhat districts of Bangladesh. In this case, quantile regression at the median is used to examine climate change and Aman rice interrelations using time series data from 1969 to 2013. The findings of the study reveal that Average Maximum Temperature and Total Rainfall has a positive impact on the Aman yield production in the study area. Considering the future severe adverse effects of climate change on food security and nutrition, and employment aspects in the study area, the study, therefore, recommends the concerned authorities to strengthen their efforts to develop, and distribute of drought-tolerant  HYV of Aman rice among the farmers at an affordable rate.  Meanwhile, the farmers should be encouraged to cultivate drought-tolerant and less water-fed crops.