Lifetime evaluation grey GERT network model of equipment system

Abstract

The reliability evaluation of equipment system with high reliability and long life is widely studied in recent years. It is very hard or uneconomic to obtain enough failure samples of these equipment in reliability test. Although there are empirical information available, we cannot ignore the inaccurate or uncertainty of these information. In this context, a quantitative analysis model of reliability evaluation for equipment system is put forward in view of the few failure data of equipment life test. The multiple working states of the equipment system and random process of equipment state transition are presented by GERT network. Interval grey number is introduced to describe the uncertainty of the statistical data and experience information of GERT parameters. According to GERT matrix solving algorithm, the system equivalent transfer function can be obtained, and then the reliability evaluation of equipment system can be realized. Besides, the study provides a new thinking for reliability accelerated life test.