An Empirical Analysis of Design Peak Demand for Determination of the Economical Size in Large Airports

Abstract

As the demand for air traffic increases, airport size should increase as well. Although it is reasonable to increase the size of the airport in accordance with the increase in air demand, airport construction considering the appropriate size is a very important issue in relation to economic validity. Therefore, it is necessary to review the airport’s design demand for air travel based on the total traffic and peak hourly traffic at the airport. Based on the theoretical approach involved, this study analyzed the design peak hourly traffic for determination of the economical airport size, and the empirical analysis was executed by data of passenger handling performance at Incheon International Airport, which is considered to be a large airport. This study estimated the appropriateness of design peak hourly traffic in large airports according to the recent records regarding Incheon International Airport’s international passengers. The statistical analysis was reviewed using the annual traffic performance statistics such as aircraft and passengers from the Airport Operation Management System (AOMS) over the last 10 years (2007-2016). The results of estimated design peak hourly traffic were compared with standard busy rate (SBR), Peak Hour demand of Average Day Peak Month (ADPM-PH), busy hour rate (BHR), inflection points and the standard deviation. As a result, the study estimated that the ADPM-PH used in many airports, showed similar to the inflection points used in many roads. Moreover, the accumulated traffic volume of design peak hourly traffic was within 3% of annual traffic. Thus, when planning large international airports, it is advised that the ADPM-PH should be used as design peak hourly demand, but a reference should be added to place accumulated traffic volume within 3%.