COVID-19 Prediction based on Infected Cases and Deaths of Bangladesh using Deep Transfer Learning

Abstract

The severely infectious virus known as “COVID- 19” has wreaked havoc on the planet, trapping to keep the disease from spreading, while billions of people are staying inside. Every experts and professionals in many disciplines are working tirelessly to create a vaccine and preventative techniques to help the globe overcome this difficult crisis. In Bangladesh, the number of persons infected with Coronavirus is particularly alarming. A accurate prognosis of the epidemic, on the other hand, may aid in the management of this contagious illness until a remedy is discovered. This study aims to forecast impending COVID-19 exposed instances and fatalities using a time series dataset utilizing proposed deep transfer learning model where encoder-decoder CNN-LSTM along with deep CNN pretrained models such as: ResNet-50, DenseNet-201, MobileNet-V2, and Inception-ResNet-V2 performed. We also predict the regular exposed instances and fatalities throughout the following 180 days in data visualization segment using AIC and BIC selection criteria. The suggested paradigms are also used to anticipate Bangladesh's daily confirmed cases and daily which is evaluated by error based on three performance criteria. We discovered that ResNet-50 performs better among others for predicting infected case and deaths owing to COVID-19 in Bangladesh in terms of MAPE, MAE and RMSE evaluations.