Risk management of a high pressured test cartridge using sensitivity testing

Abstract

Using a static Sensitivity Test approach, and analyzing the collected data using Binary and Ordinal Logistic Regression, the risk of potentially falsely inducing weapon damage, either in a latent or fully realized manner, was effectively managed and mitigated while simultaneously providing the Army with a more adequate proof cartridge for 5.56mm weapons including the M4 carbine, M16 rifle, and M249 Squad Automatic Weapon. By incorporating error propagation through Monte Carlo simulation, robust tolerances were derived using the Binary Logistic Regression model to estimate the pressure value which corresponded to a target probability of encountering a critical defect threshold of 0.000001, or 1 in a million.