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2017 Annual Reliability and Maintainability Symposium (RAMS)最新文献

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Contracting for system availability under fleet expansion: Redundancy allocation or spares inventory? 机队扩张下的系统可用性合同:冗余分配还是备件库存?
Pub Date : 2017-03-29 DOI: 10.1109/RAM.2017.7889766
T. Jin, Yisha Xiang, H. Taboada
Operational availability is a fundamental measure to assess the system performance after the installation. To achieve the desired availability goals, various strategies have been discussed, ranging from preventive maintenance, reliability-redundancy allocation (RRA), to spare parts logistics. RRA aims to extend the system uptime while spare parts logistics can reduce the downtime. These methods become difficult to choose if the fleet size changes over time. This situation often occurs in the new product introduction stage. This paper develops new cost model and analyzes the trade-off between redundancy allocation and spare parts stocking. Our model is built upon an integrated product-service mechanism where the firm manufactures the products and also provides after-sales support. We show that component redundancy is preferred over spare part inventory under long-term, performance-based contract. Examples from semiconductor equipment industry are used to demonstrate the application of the proposed method.
运行可用性是评估系统安装后性能的基本指标。为了实现预期的可用性目标,讨论了从预防性维护、可靠性冗余分配(RRA)到备件物流的各种策略。RRA旨在延长系统的正常运行时间,而备件物流可以减少停机时间。如果船队规模随时间变化,这些方法就很难选择。这种情况经常发生在新产品推出阶段。本文建立了新的成本模型,分析了冗余分配与备件库存之间的权衡关系。我们的模式建立在一个集成的产品-服务机制之上,公司生产产品并提供售后支持。我们表明,在长期、基于绩效的合同下,零部件冗余比备件库存更受青睐。以半导体设备行业为例,说明了该方法的应用。
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引用次数: 0
Reliability study on high-k bi-layer dielectrics 高k双层电介质的可靠性研究
Pub Date : 2017-03-29 DOI: 10.1109/RAM.2017.7889746
Faranak Fathi Aghdam, H. Liao
As electronic devices get smaller, reliability issues pose new challenges due to unknown underlying physics of failure mechanisms. This necessitates the development of new reliability analysis approaches related to nano-scale devices. One of the most important nano-devices is the transistor, and it is subject to various failure mechanisms. For such devices, dielectric breakdown is the most critical failure mode and has become a major barrier for reliable circuit design in nanoscale. Due to aggressive needs for the downscaling of transistors, dielectric films are made extremely thin. This has led to adopting high permittivity (k) dielectrics as an alternative to previously widely used SiO2, in recent years. Since most time-dependent dielectric breakdown test data on high-k bi-layer stacks significantly deviate from the Weibull trend, we propose a new approach to modeling the corresponding time-to-breakdown in this paper. A marked space-time self-exciting point process is employed in modeling defect generation rate. A simulation algorithm is used to generate defects within the dielectric space, and an optimization algorithm is developed to minimize the Kullback-Leibler divergence between the empirical distributions of real and simulated data to find the best set of the parameters and predict the total time-to-failure. The novelty of the presented approach lies in using a conditional intensity for trap generation in dielectrics that is a function of the times, locations and sizes of previous defects.
随着电子器件的小型化,由于未知的失效机制,可靠性问题提出了新的挑战。这就需要开发与纳米级器件相关的新的可靠性分析方法。晶体管是最重要的纳米器件之一,它受到各种失效机制的影响。对于此类器件,介质击穿是最关键的失效模式,已成为纳米级可靠电路设计的主要障碍。由于迫切需要缩小晶体管的尺寸,电介质薄膜被制作得非常薄。这导致近年来采用高介电常数(k)介电材料作为以前广泛使用的SiO2的替代品。由于高k双层电堆中大多数随时间变化的介电击穿试验数据明显偏离威布尔趋势,本文提出了一种新的模拟相应击穿时间的方法。采用标记时空自激点过程对缺陷生成率进行建模。采用模拟算法在介质空间内生成缺陷,并开发了一种优化算法,以最小化真实数据和模拟数据经验分布之间的Kullback-Leibler散度,从而找到最佳参数集并预测总失效时间。该方法的新颖之处在于,它使用了电介质中陷阱产生的条件强度,这是以前缺陷的时间、位置和大小的函数。
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引用次数: 1
Human reliability assessments: Using the past (Shuttle) to predict the future (Orion) 人类可靠性评估:用过去(航天飞机)预测未来(猎户座)
Pub Date : 2017-01-23 DOI: 10.1109/RAM.2017.7889780
D. DeMott, M. Bigler
NASA (National Aeronautics and Space Administration) Johnson Space Center (JSC) Safety and Mission Assurance (S&MA) uses two human reliability analysis (HRA) methodologies. The first is a simplified method which is based on how much time is available to complete the action, with consideration included for environmental and personal factors that could influence the human's reliability. This method is expected to provide a conservative value or placeholder as a preliminary estimate. This preliminary estimate or screening value is used to determine which placeholder needs a more detailed assessment. The second methodology is used to develop a more detailed human reliability assessment on the performance of critical human actions. This assessment needs to consider more than the time available, this would include factors such as: the importance of the action, the context, environmental factors, potential human stresses, previous experience, training, physical design interfaces, available procedures/checklists and internal human stresses. The more detailed assessment is expected to be more realistic than that based primarily on time available. When performing an HRA on a system or process that has an operational history, we have information specific to the task based on this history and experience. In the case of a Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) that is based on a new design and has no operational history, providing a “reasonable” assessment of potential crew actions becomes more challenging. To determine what is expected of future operational parameters, the experience from individuals who had relevant experience and were familiar with the system and process previously implemented by NASA was used to provide the “best” available data. Personnel from Flight Operations, Flight Directors, Launch Test Directors, Control Room Console Operators, and Astronauts were all interviewed to provide a comprehensive picture of previous NASA operations. Verification of the assumptions and expectations expressed in the assessments will be needed when the procedures, flight rules, and operational requirements are developed and then finalized.
NASA(美国国家航空航天局)约翰逊航天中心(JSC)的安全和任务保证(S&MA)使用两种人类可靠性分析(HRA)方法。第一种是一种简化的方法,它基于有多少时间可以完成动作,并考虑了可能影响人的可靠性的环境和个人因素。此方法预计将提供一个保守值或占位符作为初步估计。这个初步估计或筛选值用于确定哪个占位符需要更详细的评估。第二种方法用于对关键人类行为的性能进行更详细的人类可靠性评估。这种评估需要考虑的不仅仅是可用的时间,这将包括以下因素:行动的重要性、背景、环境因素、潜在的人为压力、以前的经验、培训、物理设计界面、可用的程序/检查表和内部的人为压力。预计更详细的评估将比主要基于可用时间的评估更为现实。当对具有操作历史的系统或流程执行HRA时,我们根据该历史和经验获得了特定于任务的信息。在基于新设计且没有操作历史的概率风险评估(PRA)的情况下,为潜在的船员行动提供“合理”的评估变得更具挑战性。为了确定对未来操作参数的期望,具有相关经验并熟悉NASA以前实施的系统和过程的个人的经验被用来提供“最佳”可用数据。来自飞行操作、飞行主任、发射测试主任、控制室控制台操作员和宇航员的人员都接受了采访,以提供以前NASA操作的全面情况。当程序、飞行规则和操作要求被制定并最终确定时,将需要对评估中所表达的假设和期望进行核实。
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引用次数: 1
A non-parametric control chart for high frequency multivariate data 高频多变量数据的非参数控制图
Pub Date : 2016-07-25 DOI: 10.1109/RAM.2017.7889786
Deovrat Kakde, Sergiy Peredriy, A. Chaudhuri, Anya McGuirk
Support Vector Data Description (SVDD) is a machine learning technique used for single class classification and outlier detection. A SVDD based K-chart was first introduced by Sun and Tsung [4]. K-chart provides an attractive alternative to the traditional control charts such as the Hotelling's T2 charts when the distribution of the underlying multivariate data is either non-normal or is unknown. But there are challenges when the K-chart is deployed in practice. The K-chart requires calculating the kernel distance of each new observation but there are no guidelines on how to interpret the kernel distance plot and draw inferences about shifts in process mean or changes in process variation. This limits the application of K-charts in big-data applications such as equipment health monitoring, where observations are generated at a very high frequency. In this scenario, the analyst using the K-chart is inundated with kernel distance results at a very high frequency, generally without any recourse for detecting presence of any assignable causes of variation. We propose a new SVDD based control chart, called a kT chart, which addresses the challenges encountered when using a K-chart for big-data applications. The kT charts can be used to track simultaneously process variation and central tendency.
支持向量数据描述(SVDD)是一种用于单类分类和异常值检测的机器学习技术。基于SVDD的k图最早由Sun和Tsung提出[4]。当底层多变量数据的分布是非正态或未知时,k图提供了传统控制图(如Hotelling的T2图)的一个有吸引力的替代方案。但在实际应用k图时,也存在一些挑战。k图需要计算每个新观测值的核距离,但对于如何解释核距离图以及如何推断过程均值的变化或过程方差的变化,没有指导方针。这限制了k图在设备健康监测等大数据应用中的应用,因为这些应用的观测频率非常高。在这种情况下,使用k图的分析人员以非常高的频率被核距离结果淹没,通常没有任何资源来检测任何可分配的变化原因的存在。我们提出了一种新的基于SVDD的控制图,称为kT图,它解决了在大数据应用中使用k图时遇到的挑战。kT图可用于同时跟踪过程变化和集中趋势。
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引用次数: 6
Reliability and availability measure and assessment of multistage production systems 多级生产系统的可靠性和可用性度量与评估
Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.1109/RAM.2017.7889708
Jian Guo, Z. Li, Wendai Wang
This paper investigates an interesting research topic of defining and measuring reliability and availability of multistage production systems. Most current production systems include multiple stations or stages with possible varying buffer capacity in each station. The configurations of buffer resources/equipment and their reliability performance in one station are interdependent with adjacent stations, which makes it challenging to define and measure the reliability and availability of the overall system. Stochastic processes such as Markov process is introduced to model the reliability and availability performance of multistage production systems. The relationship of reliability/availability and the traditional performance metrics such as cycle times and throughputs in modeling production systems are investigated. Simulation models are introduced to verify performance of the proposed methods under complex and varying multistage production settings.
本文探讨了多级生产系统的可靠性和可用性的定义和测量问题。大多数当前的生产系统包括多个工位或阶段,每个工位的缓冲容量可能不同。一个站点的缓冲资源/设备的配置及其可靠性性能与相邻站点是相互依赖的,这给整个系统的可靠性和可用性的定义和测量带来了挑战。引入马尔可夫过程等随机过程对多级生产系统的可靠性和可用性进行建模。研究了生产系统建模中可靠性/可用性与传统性能指标(如周期时间和吞吐量)的关系。引入仿真模型来验证所提出方法在复杂多变的多级生产环境下的性能。
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引用次数: 4
New FIDES models for emerging technologies 新兴技术的新FIDES模型
Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.1109/RAM.2017.7889686
Patrick Carton, M. Giraudeau, F. Davenel
The purpose of this paper is to describe the PISTIS project, mainly focused on the reliability of emerging technologies involved in electronic systems. PISTIS is a French acronym, meaning faith, trust and confidence, from the Greek origin. Managing the reliability risk is a big challenge in rugged environments. PISTIS is linked to FIDES, a guide allowing reliability prediction of electronic systems. Results from in-service study presented in this paper show the accordance between FIDES predictions and reliability observed. This confirmed the interest to complete FIDES models by taking into account intrinsic wear-out effects limiting the operating lifetime. The PISTIS project started in 2015. Depending on the technologies and their main failure mechanisms, different long-term test processes are set up to evaluate the wear-out effects. To be able to construct reliability prediction models taking into account these effects, the stress level of reliability tests need to be close to the actual extreme use conditions and mission profiles in which electronic equipment are used.
本文的目的是描述PISTIS项目,主要集中在电子系统中涉及的新兴技术的可靠性。PISTIS是法语首字母缩略词,意为信仰、信任和信心,源于希腊语。在恶劣的环境中,管理可靠性风险是一个巨大的挑战。PISTIS与FIDES相联系,FIDES是一种允许电子系统可靠性预测的指南。本文在役研究的结果表明,FIDES的预测与观测到的可靠性是一致的。这证实了通过考虑限制使用寿命的内在磨损效应来完成FIDES模型的兴趣。PISTIS项目于2015年启动。根据不同的技术及其主要失效机制,建立了不同的长期测试过程来评估磨损效应。为了能够构建考虑到这些影响的可靠性预测模型,可靠性试验的应力水平需要接近使用电子设备的实际极端使用条件和任务概况。
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引用次数: 3
Optimizing life cycle cost of wind turbine blades using predictive analytics in effective maintenance planning 在有效的维护计划中使用预测分析优化风力涡轮机叶片的生命周期成本
Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.1109/RAM.2017.7889682
Amith Nag Nichenametla, Srikanth Nandipati, Abhay Laxmanrao Waghmare
A wind turbine blade is capital equipment vital enough to be protected and maintained for inherent safety and reliability during lifetime due to its high impact on turbine availability in event of failure / repair. Unlike matured industries like aerospace, there are no specific guidelines for maintenance plans and mostly the repairs are reactive in nature. This leads to very high cost of maintenance owing to longer downtime of the turbine raising a need to derive an effective maintenance strategy demanding reliability centered maintenance, also facilitating business decisions on spares, service and maintenance requirements through use of available field information, supported by a predictive analytics and reliability models with an overall objective of reducing the operation cost and gaining higher levels of reliability. This paper is an attempt to make use of the widely practiced Predictive Analytics techniques in wind domain to address such challenges and remain competitive in the market. The model built was able to take inputs from different stages of the product life cycle providing a mathematical relationship with respect to failures and contributing factors, allowing addressing the blades that are in critical need of inspection and maintenance at any given point of time based on the rate of wear out. This further becomes a critical input for maintenance planning thereby reducing the operational cost and also attaining high levels of Reliability. Additionally, the model built also provides feedback to the different stages of blade life cycle in terms of setting targets that are required in order to maintain a certain level of Reliability in the field.
风力涡轮机叶片是一种重要的设备,由于其在故障/维修时对涡轮机的可用性有很大的影响,因此在使用寿命期间必须对其进行保护和维护,以确保固有的安全性和可靠性。与航空航天等成熟行业不同,该行业没有具体的维护计划指导方针,而且大多数维修本质上是被动的。这导致了非常高的维护成本,因为涡轮机的停机时间更长,需要制定有效的维护策略,要求以可靠性为中心的维护,同时通过使用可用的现场信息,在预测分析和可靠性模型的支持下,促进备件,服务和维护需求的业务决策,其总体目标是降低运营成本并获得更高的可靠性。本文试图利用风能领域广泛实践的预测分析技术来应对这些挑战,并在市场上保持竞争力。建立的模型能够从产品生命周期的不同阶段获取输入,提供关于故障和影响因素的数学关系,从而可以根据磨损率在任何给定时间点解决迫切需要检查和维护的叶片。这进一步成为维护计划的关键输入,从而降低运营成本,并实现高水平的可靠性。此外,所建立的模型还为叶片生命周期的不同阶段提供反馈,以设置所需的目标,以便在现场保持一定水平的可靠性。
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引用次数: 10
Resilience and stakeholder need 弹性和利益相关者需求
Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.1109/RAM.2017.7889705
R. Emanuel
The current resilience literature lacks a thorough comparison of the behavior of resilience metrics using fundamental models of system performance. To close this gap, this study identifies three metrics that either encompass or can be easily amended to encompass resilience definition of resilience as proposed by Ayyub [1]. The three selected metrics are integral resilience [1], [2], quotient resilience [3], [4], and expected system degradation function [5]. While each of these metrics measures resilience in its own way, gaps exist that affect the metrics' decision-support potential. This study identifies gaps common to these metrics, which limit their decision support value. The gaps include: (1) Lack of consideration of stakeholder performance preferences. (2) Lack of consideration of different stakeholder time horizon. (3) Lack of performance substitution over time. The first step of the study is to modify the three selected metrics to satisfy the broad definition of resilience if necessary. The second step is to develop extended versions of the metric to close the three identified gaps. The third step is to compare the six metrics using a fundamental model of performance and need with known variables (failure time, robustness, recovery time, recovery performance level, etc.). The extended metrics demonstrate different values from the original metrics which are consistent with the spirit of the metrics and largely congruent with intuition.
目前的弹性文献缺乏使用系统性能的基本模型对弹性度量的行为进行彻底的比较。为了缩小这一差距,本研究确定了三个指标,这些指标要么包含,要么可以很容易地修改为包含Ayyub[1]提出的弹性定义。选取的三个指标分别是积分弹性[1]、[2]、商弹性[3]、[4]和预期系统退化函数[5]。虽然这些指标都以自己的方式衡量弹性,但存在影响指标决策支持潜力的差距。本研究确定了这些度量标准的共同差距,这些差距限制了它们的决策支持价值。差距包括:(1)缺乏对利益相关者绩效偏好的考虑。(2)缺乏对不同利益相关者时间范围的考虑。(3)长期缺乏绩效替代。研究的第一步是在必要时修改三个选定的指标以满足弹性的广义定义。第二步是开发度量标准的扩展版本,以缩小三个已确定的差距。第三步是使用性能和需求的基本模型与已知变量(故障时间、鲁棒性、恢复时间、恢复性能水平等)比较六个指标。扩展的度量标准显示了与原始度量标准不同的值,这些值与度量标准的精神是一致的,并且在很大程度上与直觉一致。
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引用次数: 1
Condition based maintenance of machine tools: Vibration monitoring of spindle units 机床的状态维护:主轴单元的振动监测
Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.1109/RAM.2017.7889683
A. Rastegari, A. Archenti, Mohammadsadegh Mobin
Machining systems (i.e., machine tools, cutting processes and their interaction) cannot produce accurate parts if performance degradation due to wear in their subsystems (e.g., feed-drive systems and spindle units) is not identified, monitored and controlled. Appropriate maintenance actions delay the possible deterioration and minimize/avoids the machining system stoppage time that leads to lower productivity and higher production cost. Moreover, measuring and monitoring machine tool condition has become increasingly important due to the introduction of agile production, increased accuracy requirements for products and customers' requirements for quality assurance. Condition Based Maintenance (CBM) practices, such as vibration monitoring of machine tool spindle units, are therefore becoming a very attractive, but still challenging, method for companies operating high-value machines and components. CBM is being used to plan for maintenance action based on the condition of the machines and to prevent failures by solving the problems in advance as well as controlling the accuracy of the machining operations. By increasing the knowledge in this area, companies can save money through fewer acute breakdowns, reduction in inventory cost, reduction in repair times, and an increase in the robustness of the manufacturing processes leading to more predictable manufacturing. Hence, the CBM of machine tools ensures the basic conditions to deliver the right ability or capability of the right machine at the right time. One of the most common problems of rotating equipment such as spindles is the bearing condition (due to wear of the bearings). Failure of the bearings can cause major damage in a spindle. Vibration analysis is able to diagnose bearing failures by measuring the overall vibration of a spindle or, more precisely, by frequency analysis. Several factors should be taken into consideration to perform vibration monitoring on a machine tool's spindle. Some of these factors are as follows: the sensor type/sensitivity, number of sensors to be installed on the spindle in different directions, positioning of the vibration accelerometers, frequency range to be measured, resonance frequency, spindle rotational speed during the measurements,
如果加工系统(即机床、切削过程及其相互作用)的子系统(如进给驱动系统和主轴单元)由于磨损而导致的性能下降没有得到识别、监测和控制,则加工系统(即机床、切削过程及其相互作用)无法生产出精确的零件。适当的维护措施可以延缓可能出现的劣化,并尽量减少/避免导致生产率降低和生产成本增加的加工系统停机时间。此外,由于敏捷生产的引入,对产品精度要求的提高以及客户对质量保证的要求,测量和监控机床状态变得越来越重要。因此,基于状态的维护(CBM)实践,例如机床主轴单元的振动监测,对于运营高价值机器和部件的公司来说,正成为一种非常有吸引力但仍然具有挑战性的方法。CBM被用于根据机器的状况计划维修行动,并通过提前解决问题和控制加工操作的精度来防止故障。通过增加这一领域的知识,公司可以通过减少突发故障、减少库存成本、减少维修时间以及提高制造过程的稳健性来节省资金,从而实现更可预测的制造。因此,机床的CBM确保了在正确的时间提供正确的机器的正确能力或能力的基本条件。旋转设备如主轴最常见的问题之一是轴承状况(由于轴承的磨损)。轴承的故障会对主轴造成重大损害。振动分析能够通过测量主轴的整体振动来诊断轴承故障,或者更准确地说,通过频率分析。对机床主轴进行振动监测应考虑几个因素。其中一些因素如下:传感器类型/灵敏度,不同方向上安装在主轴上的传感器数量,振动加速度计的位置,待测频率范围,共振频率,测量时主轴转速,
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引用次数: 34
A scenario-based FMEA method and its evaluation in a railway context 基于场景的FMEA方法及其在铁路环境下的评价
Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.1109/RAM.2017.7889724
Melissa Issad, L. Kloul, A. Rauzy
Safety analysis of railway CBTC systems aims at finding and validating failure scenarios. In this article we present a scenario-based FMEA method based on ScOLA, a scenario oriented modeling language dedicated to the analysis and formalization of complex systems. The specifications of such systems are usually spread in documents of thousands of pages written in a natural language. These documents are the basis for the safety analysis and validations activities. Therefore, we propose the scenario-based FMEA method to perform safety analysis that is more efficient than the paper-based analysis. The method retrieves and evaluates failure scenarios using functional ones. The article aims at presenting the method and its application on a railway system.
铁路CBTC系统的安全分析旨在发现和验证故障场景。在本文中,我们提出了一种基于ScOLA的基于场景的FMEA方法,ScOLA是一种面向场景的建模语言,专门用于分析和形式化复杂系统。这类系统的规范通常以自然语言写成的数千页的文件来传播。这些文件是安全分析和验证活动的基础。因此,我们提出基于场景的FMEA方法来执行比基于纸张的分析更有效的安全分析。该方法使用功能场景检索和评估故障场景。本文旨在介绍该方法及其在某铁路系统中的应用。
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引用次数: 7
期刊
2017 Annual Reliability and Maintainability Symposium (RAMS)
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