Research on the Relationship between Railway Network Development and Economic Growth in Central China

Cai-xin Han
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引用次数: 1

Abstract

The development of regional economy benefits from transportation infrastructure upgrading. Take central China as the example, based on its railway passenger and freight volumes and turnover volumes, GDP and other macro-economic data, this paper uses co-integration analysis, the error correction model and Granger causal relation test to empirically study the internal relationship between these two kinds of indexes. Results show that GDP has long-term co-integration relationship with all these transportation indexes, and the elasticity coefficients of passenger volume, passenger and freight turnover volumes to GDP are 0.5959, 14.9931 and 1.9916 respectively, among which the passenger turnover volume has a significant effect on economic growth. The construction and operation of the eight vertical and eight horizontal high-speed railway network will definitely further boost the rapid development of regional economy.
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中部地区铁路网发展与经济增长关系研究
区域经济的发展离不开交通基础设施的升级。本文以华中地区为例,基于其铁路客货量、周转量、GDP等宏观经济数据,运用协整分析、误差修正模型和格兰杰因果关系检验对两类指标之间的内在关系进行实证研究。结果表明,国内生产总值与各交通运输指标均存在长期协整关系,客运量、客运量和货运量对国内生产总值的弹性系数分别为0.5959、14.9931和1.9916,其中客运量对经济增长的影响显著。八纵八横高速铁路网的建设和运营必将进一步推动区域经济的快速发展。
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