Makroekonomik Değişkenlerin BIST Turizm Endeksi Üzerindeki Etkisinin İncelenmesi

Abstract

The aim of this study is to investigate the mutual relationship between BIST Tourism index, USD/TL, interest rate and oil prices. January 2008 December 2020 monthly data were used in the study. Effect-response functions based on the VAR model were used to evaluate the reaction of the BIST Tourism index to an increase in the exchange rate, interest rate and oil prices. In addition, the VAR Granger causality test was applied to determine whether there is any causal relationship between the variables. According to Effect-response functions, it was found that the Tourism Index reacted positively to the dollar shock. The impact of the interest rate on the BIST Tourism Index was negative in weak form until the fourth period. The impact of oil prices on the BIST Tourism Index was positive in weak form. The results obtained from the study are important for examining and determining the effects of macroeconomic factors that may affect the tourism index.