Stock Market Responses to Monetary and Fiscal Policies

Elif Erer, Deniz Erer
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Abstract

This study analyzes the short-run and long-run effects of interaction between fiscal and monetary policies on stock market performance in four emerging Asian economies, which are China, India, Indonesia, and Malaysia, by using ARDL model. The study covers the period of 2003:Q1-2020:Q1. The findings from this study show monetary and fiscal policies play an important role in determining stock market returns. Also, the results theoretically support Richardian neutrality hypothesis for China and Indonesia, Keynesian positive effect hypothesis for India, and classical crowding out effect hypothesis for Malaysia, and interest channel of monetary transmission mechanism only for China.
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股市对货币和财政政策的反应
本文运用ARDL模型分析了中国、印度、印度尼西亚和马来西亚四个亚洲新兴经济体财政和货币政策相互作用对股市表现的短期和长期影响。研究时间为2003年第一季度至2020年第一季度。本文的研究结果表明,货币政策和财政政策在决定股票市场收益方面发挥了重要作用。同时,研究结果在理论上支持理查对中国和印度尼西亚的中性假设、对印度的凯恩斯正效应假设和对马来西亚的经典挤出效应假设,以及仅对中国的货币传导机制的利率通道。
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