Validation of Variable-Value Stream Mapping Model by using Monte Carlo Simulation and Risk Assessment Approach

Abstract

One of the most popular lean manufacturing techniques for calculating cycle time (CT) and lead time (LT) in the process flow from customer order to shipment is value stream mapping (VSM). Events in the flow that are value-added (VAA) and non-value-added (NVAA) must be identified and recorded in the VSM. Only a small number of studies, meanwhile, have considered risk management when determining lead times. With (minimum, most-likely(mean), maximum) values for each CT/LT and Risk Assessment-Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (RA-FMEA) for all hazards reported, Variable VSM (V-VSM) will be used in this report. The model will be simulated using Monte Carlo simulation with @Risk software for a more accurate outcome. Each process should be described by the best-fit probability distribution before the simulation. The management may finalize the current and future VSMs, which would show all pertinent elements. In a small- and medium-sized food manufacturing company that produces pre-mixed powder drinks, this approach will be put to the test. As a result of this study, the management should take into account the (minimum, most-likely(mean), maximum) time values of total CT/LT and Risk while preparing the raw material order, VAA/NVAA activities in the production line, Work in Progress (WIP), process layout, and shipment schedule. The focus of this paper however, will be on the validation of Monte Carlo simulation performed with the @ Risk software using the developed V-VSM and RA-FMEA model. The result obtained is compared to the traditional VSM’s result.