A Steel Price Index Model and Its Empirical Research

Zhishuo Liu, Jingmiao Ma, Xiaoyan Wei, Jinchao Wang, Han Li
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Abstract

Although the steel price index plays a key role in finding price of steel, guiding and stabilizing the market, China still lacks a scientific, complete and rigorous steel price index. This paper firstly built the steel price index system, which considered different regions, steel products, materials and specifications. The index system consists of two index series and eight indexes. Then a calculation model of steel price index based on the Laspeyres method was constructed. Finally, an empirical analysis showed that the steel price index well reflected the price fluctuation and the predictive ability of price in the steel market.
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钢铁价格指数模型及其实证研究
尽管钢铁价格指数在发现钢铁价格、引导和稳定市场方面发挥着关键作用,但中国仍然缺乏一个科学、完整、严谨的钢铁价格指数。本文首先构建了考虑不同地区、不同钢材品种、不同材料、不同规格的钢材价格指标体系。指标体系由两个指标系列和八个指标组成。在此基础上,构建了基于Laspeyres法的钢材价格指数计算模型。最后,实证分析表明,钢材价格指数较好地反映了钢材市场的价格波动和价格预测能力。
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