Correct decisions based on uncertain requirements and imperfect information within product partnerships-a contradiction?

G. Hertel, T. Jahns, M. Kokes, T. Neff, I. Trefz, W. Virt
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Abstract

Early and effective integration of subsuppliers during the early phases of the product development process has become a strategic factor key to a manufacturer's competitiveness. It will therefore be important in the future to act upon subsuppliers' innovations in a significantly more timely manner than is practised today. The realization of this task will render the sphere of development crucially important. Not only the technical functionality of a future product is defined in the early phases of the product development process. Through specification of technical parameters a product's cost as well as indirect and direct costs associated with a product's production may be determined. The transformation of this strategy into reality requires the ability to work with incomplete information, which, when coupled with accurate mathematical and modelling methods, can contribute to making the goal of higher profits a reality. Through the example of a vehicle accessory, it was shown that with the help of probability based assessment techniques that are able to model the kind of incomplete input data often present in early planning stages, well founded decisions can be reached. Timely recognition of risks and of requirement to act as well as transparent and accountable decision making that takes customer wishes into account are the primary goals that will be pursued in order that economically robust products are created.
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在产品合作关系中,基于不确定的需求和不完善的信息做出正确的决策——这是矛盾吗?
在产品开发过程的早期阶段,尽早有效地整合分包商已成为制造商竞争力的关键战略因素。因此,今后重要的是要比现在更及时地对分包商的创新采取行动。实现这一任务将使发展领域变得极为重要。在产品开发过程的早期阶段,不仅定义了未来产品的技术功能。通过技术参数的说明,可以确定产品的成本以及与产品生产有关的间接和直接成本。将这一战略转变为现实需要有能力处理不完整的信息,当与精确的数学和建模方法相结合时,可以有助于使更高利润的目标成为现实。以某汽车配件为例,研究结果表明,基于概率的评估技术能够对早期规划阶段经常出现的不完整输入数据进行建模,从而得出有充分根据的决策。及时识别风险和行动需求,以及考虑到客户意愿的透明和负责任的决策制定,是为了创造经济上可靠的产品而追求的主要目标。
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