Decision making on capital markets using trend based research methods

Tomáš Poláček, Tomáš Meluzín, Libor Chládek
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Abstract

One of the main objectives of this study is to develop a qualitative model that will serve the decision makers' CFOs (chief financial officers), where, as a rule, it is decided without deeper processing of information many factors that affect each other significantly. Lack of appropriate statistical information in connection with turbulently changing environments suggests that further research is needed to extend existing IPO models based on statistical analyzes. The paper is using basic qualitative research of trends. All pairs of relationships are based on trends, either increasing, constant, or decreasing. The key input of the correct IPO timing analysis is based on the knowledge of experts traced from qualitative heuristics. The transition graph is a qualitative interpretation of all possible quantitative time series of all variables used in our IPO timetable and should be used as an effective tool to support CFO decisions.
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基于趋势研究方法的资本市场决策
本研究的主要目标之一是开发一个定性模型,将服务于决策者的cfo(首席财务官),其中,作为一项规则,它是在没有深入处理信息的情况下决定的,许多因素相互影响显著。由于缺乏与剧烈变化的环境相关的适当统计信息,因此需要进一步研究以统计分析为基础的现有IPO模型。本文采用基本的定性趋势研究方法。所有对关系都是基于趋势的,要么增加,要么不变,要么减少。正确的IPO时机分析的关键输入是基于从定性启发式中追踪到的专家知识。过渡图是对IPO时间表中所有变量的所有可能的定量时间序列的定性解释,应该用作支持首席财务官决策的有效工具。
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