Probabilistic Assessment of Storm Surge Hazard along Coastal Regions of Sindh Province, Pakistan

H. Khan, Aamir Ali, Yusha Anis
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Abstract

A phenomenon that brings about abnormal rise in the sea level is referred as storm surge generated as a result of tropical cyclones. Tropical cyclone are low pressure systems which are often very powerful and intense causing serious damages by producing destructive winds, surges and heavy rainfall. Over the past decades, North Indian Ocean has been subjected to the catastrophe of tropical cyclones leading to massive economic and human losses. The coastal zones of Pakistan, India, Bangladesh, Myanmar, Sri Lanka and Oman are consistently affected by storm surges. Although Arabian Sea is potential region for cyclones, but the frequency of cyclones is occasional and mostly during the monsoon and post monsoon season. A number of tropical cyclones dating back to 100 years have struck Pakistan’s coastal areas in the years 1895, 1902, 1907, 1948, 1964, 1985, 1999, 2001, 2007, and 2010. In view of rapid recurrences of cyclones in past few years this study aims to carry out probabilistic assessment of tropical cyclone hazard to estimate the return periods for surge heights for the province of Sindh. The CAPRA ERN-Hurricane model simulate surge heights along the shoreline for provided historic cyclone tracks from IBTrACS v04r00 and employing topography, bathymetry, wind exposure and soil roughness as other input parameters for the model. Furthermore, the frequency analysis by Gumbel method has been adopted in the study to estimate surge heights for 25, 100 and 500 years return periods. ERN Hurricane model estimates highest surge value of 0.6385 m for tropical cyclone 02A 1999. Second highest surge value in historic cyclone is 0.6067 m, which corresponds to tropical cyclone Phet 2010. While frequency analysis estimates maximum surge value of 0.5905 m, 0.7352 m, 0.9041 m for 25, 100 and 500 year return periods respectively. Storm surge hazard data is utilized in making hazard maps illustrating the intensities and inundation of cyclone over return periods. The data and maps from this study can contribute in planning and developing suitable strategies to mitigate loss for areas at potential risk.
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巴基斯坦信德省沿海地区风暴潮危害的概率评估
引起海平面异常上升的现象被称为热带气旋引起的风暴潮。热带气旋是一种低压系统,通常非常强大和强烈,会产生破坏性的风、风暴潮和暴雨,造成严重的破坏。近几十年来,北印度洋不断遭受热带气旋灾害,造成了巨大的经济和人员损失。巴基斯坦、印度、孟加拉国、缅甸、斯里兰卡和阿曼的沿海地区持续受到风暴潮的影响。虽然阿拉伯海是潜在的气旋区,但气旋的频率是偶发的,并且主要发生在季风和季风后季节。在1895年、1902年、1907年、1948年、1964年、1985年、1999年、2001年、2007年和2010年,许多100年前的热带气旋袭击了巴基斯坦的沿海地区。鉴于近年来热带气旋的快速复发,本研究旨在对信德省的热带气旋危险性进行概率评估,以估计风暴潮高度的回归期。CAPRA ern -飓风模型利用IBTrACS v04r00提供的历史气旋路径,模拟海岸线上的风暴潮高度,并采用地形、水深、风暴露和土壤粗糙度作为模型的其他输入参数。此外,本文还采用了Gumbel方法进行频率分析,估计了25年、100年和500年的风暴潮高度。ERN飓风模式估计热带气旋02A 1999的最高浪涌值为0.6385 m。历史上第二大风暴值为0.6067 m,与Phet 2010对应。频率分析估计25年、100年和500年的最大浪涌值分别为0.5905 m、0.7352 m和0.9041 m。风暴潮危险数据用于制作危险地图,说明气旋在返回期间的强度和淹没情况。这项研究的数据和地图有助于规划和制定适当的战略,以减轻潜在风险地区的损失。
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