Environment View on the Morphology of Chinese Monetary Liquidity

Jingying Miao, Fei Wang
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Abstract

This paper uses the national economic statistics and adopts statistical research methods to analyze the economic significance of bank balance sheets, and finally it confirms that credit expansion is the main source of M1 theoretical supply growth. The macro scale of credit expansion shows that the M2/GDP has continuously increased, which has aggravated the imbalance between the real economy and the monetary economy. At the micro level, the expansion of credit size has characterized by a widening of deposits and loans. The interaction between "high liquidity" and "inefficient use of assets of commercial banks" directly affects the increase in the payment risk of the commercial banking system; the indirect effect further leads to a higher M2/GDP. When the credit conditions deteriorate, it will affect the stability of the financial system.
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中国货币流动性形态的环境观
本文运用国民经济统计数据,采用统计学研究方法分析银行资产负债表的经济意义,最终确认信贷扩张是M1理论供给增长的主要来源。宏观信贷扩张规模表现为M2/GDP持续增长,加剧了实体经济与货币经济的失衡。在微观层面,信贷规模的扩大表现为存贷款规模的扩大。“高流动性”与“商业银行资产使用效率低下”的相互作用,直接影响商业银行体系支付风险的增加;间接效应进一步导致更高的M2/GDP。当信贷状况恶化时,它将影响金融体系的稳定。
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