SIMULATION OF THE FEASIBILITY ASSESSMENT OF INNOVATIONS IMPLEMENTATION IN TRANSPORT ENTERPRISES

Abstract

Transport is a key sector of the economy of both Ukraine and European countries. Now it is undergoing a significant transformation due to geopolitical reasons, as well as changes in society’s requirements for the work of transport enterprises. In such conditions, innovation becomes one of the main factors that ensures both the current efficiency of the operation and the possibilities of further development of the enterprise. At the same time, the instability of the environment in which transport enterprises operate complicates the process of substantiating the feasibility of innovation implementation. This actualizes the problem of developing and implementing new methodological approaches to the evaluation and justification of innovations. The purpose of the paper is to develop an approach to building a model structure and assessment of innovation implementation effectiveness at a transport enterprise. The operating of any enterprise, in particular a transport one, can be represented through a model of multiple investments in its creation and development, namely initial innovation, multiple investment projects to ensure current operating and further development and other innovations. To reflect the formation of the effect from the innovation implementation, a set of models for its assessment at the pre-investment, investment and production phases of the investment cycle has been developed. The main factors that will influence the formation of the effect at each phase are highlighted. As a result, it is shown that the apparatus of similarity (homomorphism) can be used to obtain information for building a model structure and assessing the feasibility of innovation implementation at transport enterprises. It can be implemented using a scenario approach. It is possible to obtain a sufficient degree of homomorphism of the built model (model design) when using the scenario approach by organizing an expert survey on the prospects of innovation implementation. This will make it possible to obtain verified forecast assessments regarding the innovation implementation in conditions of future uncertainty.