The Clash of Civilizations? Statistical Evidence from Armed Conflicts, 1989-2015

A. Che
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引用次数: 1

Abstract

Do armed conflicts in the contemporary post-Cold War period reflect a clash of civilizations (CoC) as predicted by Samuel Huntington? This study substantially broadens and temporally extends the scope of major extant quantitative tests of the CoC thesis by assessing not only interactions among states but also interactions between states and non-state armed groups, from 1989 to 2015. Based on Chi-square and logistic regression tests, this study does not find empirical support for the CoC thesis as a basis for adopting foreign policies of civilizational containment.
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文明的冲突?1989-2015年武装冲突的统计证据
当代后冷战时期的武装冲突是否如塞缪尔·亨廷顿所预言的那样反映了文明的冲突?本研究不仅评估了1989年至2015年期间国家之间的相互作用,还评估了国家与非国家武装团体之间的相互作用,从而大大拓宽并暂时扩展了《准则》论题现有主要定量测试的范围。基于卡方检验和逻辑回归检验,本研究没有发现CoC理论作为采取文明遏制外交政策依据的实证支持。
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