Election Forecasts with Twitter - How 140 Characters Reflect the Political Landscape

A. Tumasjan, T. Sprenger, Philipp G. Sandner, I. Welpe
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引用次数: 206

Abstract

This study investigates whether microblogging messages on Twitter validly mirror the political landscape offline and can be used to predict election results. In the context of the 2009 German federal election, we conducted a sentiment analysis of over 100,000 messages containing a reference to either a political party or a politician. Our results show that Twitter is used extensively for political deliberation and that the mere number of party mentions accurately reflects the election result. The tweets' sentiment (e.g., positive and negative emotions associated with a politician) corresponds closely to voters' political preferences. In addition, party sentiment profiles reflect the similarity of political positions between parties. We derive suggestions for further research and discuss the use of microblogging services to aggregate dispersed information.
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用推特预测选举——140个字符如何反映政治格局
本研究探讨推特上的微博讯息是否能有效反映线下的政治格局,并可用于预测选举结果。在2009年德国联邦大选的背景下,我们对超过10万条涉及政党或政治家的信息进行了情绪分析。我们的研究结果表明,Twitter被广泛用于政治审议,仅仅提到政党的数量就能准确反映选举结果。推文的情绪(例如,与政治家相关的积极和消极情绪)与选民的政治偏好密切相关。此外,政党情绪概况反映了政党之间政治立场的相似性。我们提出了进一步研究的建议,并讨论了利用微博服务来聚合分散的信息。
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Bias, Bullshit and Lies: Audience Perspectives on Low Trust in the Media Election Forecasts with Twitter - How 140 Characters Reflect the Political Landscape
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