Application of chaotic neural network in power system load forecasting

Yu-hong Zhao, Jinxing Xiao
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引用次数: 2

Abstract

Power system load forecasting is one of the important work of electricity production departments, the load demand is affected by many factors (such as weather, economic, and social activities, etc.) effects, and their relationship is complex, unclear, so it is difficulty to predict the load accurately. In order to improve short term load forecasting accuracy, according to this non-linear reconstruction technique based on chaos theory we constructed an improved BP algorithm based on chaotic neural network short term load forecasting model in this paper. The above model and the algorithm was applied to the short-term power load forecasting of an south area, made a good prediction.
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电力系统负荷预测是电力生产部门的重要工作之一,负荷需求受诸多因素(如天气、经济、社会活动等)的影响,且它们之间的关系复杂、不明确,因此对负荷进行准确预测是困难的。为了提高短期负荷预测的精度,本文根据这种基于混沌理论的非线性重构技术,构建了一种基于改进BP算法的混沌神经网络短期负荷预测模型。将上述模型和算法应用于南方某地区短期电力负荷预测,取得了较好的预测效果。
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