The Role of Consumption in Peaking China's Carbon Emissions by 2030

Abstract

China promised to peak its total carbon emissions by 2030. Various actions on both supply and demand sides have been studied to achieve the goal. However, should the consumption be influenced purposefully for environmental purposes is still been hotly debated in the literature. By re-conceptualizing the definition of consumption, this study combines various modeling techniques with input-output analysis and evaluates quantitatively the role of consumption in carbon peak by 2030. We find that, without proper interventions on technology and consumption levels, China’s energy use and carbon emissions will continuously increase without a peak before 2050. To achieve carbon peak by 2030, China would have to achieve higher energy efficiency. Alternatively, China can choose to influence the consumption levels of the domestic consumers. In this case, Chinese people will live a life which is still less wasteful than that in the USA but with the same living standards to those in Japan and European countries. However, the GDP output, in this case, is approximately 11% lower in 2050 than the counterpart when the consumption levels grow without control and ultimately exceed the US consumption levels.