The Cold-War Origins of the Value of Statistical Life (VSL)

H. Banzhaf
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引用次数: 13

Abstract

This paper traces the history of the "Value of Statistical Life" (VSL), which today is used routinely in benefit-cost analysis of life-saving investments. Schelling (1968) made the crucial move of thinking in terms of risk rather than individual lives, with the hope to dodge the moral thicket of valuing "life." But as recent policy debates have illustrated, his move only thickened it. Tellingly, interest in the subject can be traced back another twenty years before Schelling's essay, to a controversy at the RAND Corporation following its earliest application of operation research to defense planning. RAND wanted to avoid valuing pilot's lives, but the Air Force insisted they confront the issue. Thus, the VSL is not only well acquainted with political controversy; it was born from it.
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统计生命价值(VSL)的冷战起源
本文追溯了“统计生命价值”(VSL)的历史,该方法如今被常规地用于救生投资的收益-成本分析。谢林(1968)做出了至关重要的一步,从风险而非个人生命的角度进行思考,希望避开重视“生命”的道德丛林。但正如最近的政策辩论所表明的那样,他的举动只会使其变得更加复杂。引人注目的是,人们对这一主题的兴趣可以追溯到谢林的文章发表之前的20年,当时兰德公司(RAND Corporation)在将运筹学最早应用于国防规划之后引发了一场争议。兰德公司希望避免重视飞行员的生命,但空军坚持他们要面对这个问题。因此,VSL不仅熟悉政治争议;它由此诞生。
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