The relationship between housing starts and mortgage availability

R. Thom
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引用次数: 15

Abstract

Sims' innovation-accounting techniques are used to investigate the relationship between housing starts and mortgage availability using U.S. monthly data over 1967-1984. First, a four variable vector autoregression is employed to compute impulse response functions. The results suggest that housing starts are significantly in fluenced by both interest rates and mortgage availability. Second, the estimated vector autoregression is used to compute a historical decomposition of the starts series using 1979(12) as the base period. The decomposition suggests that deregulation and the evolution of more competitive financial markets has led to a significant weakening of availability effects.
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房屋开工率和抵押贷款可得性之间的关系
西姆斯的创新会计技术被用来研究住房开工率和抵押贷款可得性之间的关系,使用的是1967-1984年美国的月度数据。首先,采用四变量向量自回归计算脉冲响应函数。结果表明,住房开工率受到利率和抵押贷款可用性的显著影响。其次,使用估计的向量自回归计算起始序列的历史分解,以1979(12)为基期。分解表明,放松管制和更具竞争力的金融市场的演变导致了可获得性效应的显著减弱。
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