Forecast Content and Content Horizons for Some Important Macroeconomic Time Series

Abstract

The pattern of decay of forecast content (or skill) with increasing horizon is well known for many types of meteorological forecasts; by contrast, little generally accepted information about these patterns or content horizons is available for economic variables. In this paper we estimate content horizons for a variety of macroeconomic quantities; more generally, we characterize the pattern of decay of forecast content as we project farther into the future. We find a wide variety of results for the different macroeconomic quantities, with models for some quantities providing useful content several years into the future, for other quantities providing negligible content beyond one or two months or quarters.