This paper examines the impact of the oil price boom in the 1970s and the subsequent bust on non-oil economic activity in oil-dependent countries. During the boom, manufacturing exports and value added increased significantly relative to non-oil dependent countries,along with wages, employment, and capital formation. These measures decreased, though to a lesser and more gradual extent, during the bust and subsequent period of low prices, displaying a positive relationship with oil prices. However, exports of agricultural products sharply decreased during the boom. Imports of all types of goods displayed strong pro-cyclicality with respect to oil prices. The results suggest that increased local demand and investment spillovers induced by the oil revenue windfall resulted in increased manufacturing activity.
{"title":"Dutch Disease and the Oil Boom and Bust","authors":"Brock Smith","doi":"10.1111/caje.12376","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/caje.12376","url":null,"abstract":"This paper examines the impact of the oil price boom in the 1970s and the subsequent bust on non-oil economic activity in oil-dependent countries. During the boom, manufacturing exports and value added increased significantly relative to non-oil dependent countries,along with wages, employment, and capital formation. These measures decreased, though to a lesser and more gradual extent, during the bust and subsequent period of low prices, displaying a positive relationship with oil prices. However, exports of agricultural products sharply decreased during the boom. Imports of all types of goods displayed strong pro-cyclicality with respect to oil prices. The results suggest that increased local demand and investment spillovers induced by the oil revenue windfall resulted in increased manufacturing activity.","PeriodicalId":232547,"journal":{"name":"Wiley-Blackwell: Canadian Journal of Economics","volume":"238 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116462620","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2008-02-01DOI: 10.1111/j.1365-2966.2008.00458.x
Ali Dib, M. Gammoudi, Kevin Moran
This paper documents the out-of-sample forecasting accuracy of the New Keynesian Model for Canada. We repeatedly estimate our variant of the model on a series of rolling subsamples, forecasting out-of-sample one to eight quarters ahead at each step. We then compare these forecasts to those arising from simple VARs, using econometric tests of forecasting accuracy. Our results show that the forecasting accuracy of the New Keynesian model compares favourably to that of the benchmarks, particularly as the forecasting horizon increases. These results suggest that the model can become a useful forecasting tool for Canadian time series. The principle of parsimony is invoked to explain our findings.
{"title":"Forecasting Canadian Time Series with the New Keynesian Model","authors":"Ali Dib, M. Gammoudi, Kevin Moran","doi":"10.1111/j.1365-2966.2008.00458.x","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2966.2008.00458.x","url":null,"abstract":"This paper documents the out-of-sample forecasting accuracy of the New Keynesian Model for Canada. We repeatedly estimate our variant of the model on a series of rolling subsamples, forecasting out-of-sample one to eight quarters ahead at each step. We then compare these forecasts to those arising from simple VARs, using econometric tests of forecasting accuracy. Our results show that the forecasting accuracy of the New Keynesian model compares favourably to that of the benchmarks, particularly as the forecasting horizon increases. These results suggest that the model can become a useful forecasting tool for Canadian time series. The principle of parsimony is invoked to explain our findings.","PeriodicalId":232547,"journal":{"name":"Wiley-Blackwell: Canadian Journal of Economics","volume":"92 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2008-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133004917","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2008-01-11DOI: 10.1111/j.1365-2966.2008.00455.x
J. Wong
This paper examines the role of transparency in a benevolent monetary authority's policies. Each firm's payoff depends on unobservable macroeconomic conditions and firms may incur a cost to acquire private information about macroeconomic conditions. The policy authority attempts to infer the underlying macroeconomic conditions from a noisy measure of aggregate actions and makes a public announcement to inform firms of this inference. High-quality announcements provide firms the incentive not to gather private information and base actions solely on information contained in policy announcements. However, this makes the observed actions of firms less informative to the policy authority.
{"title":"Information Acquisition, Dissemination, and Transparency of Monetary Policy","authors":"J. Wong","doi":"10.1111/j.1365-2966.2008.00455.x","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2966.2008.00455.x","url":null,"abstract":"This paper examines the role of transparency in a benevolent monetary authority's policies. Each firm's payoff depends on unobservable macroeconomic conditions and firms may incur a cost to acquire private information about macroeconomic conditions. The policy authority attempts to infer the underlying macroeconomic conditions from a noisy measure of aggregate actions and makes a public announcement to inform firms of this inference. High-quality announcements provide firms the incentive not to gather private information and base actions solely on information contained in policy announcements. However, this makes the observed actions of firms less informative to the policy authority.","PeriodicalId":232547,"journal":{"name":"Wiley-Blackwell: Canadian Journal of Economics","volume":"18 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2008-01-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129913916","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2007-07-20DOI: 10.1111/j.1365-2966.2007.00429.x
M. Frenette, D. Green, Kevin S. Milligan
We present new evidence on levels and trends in after-tax income inequality in Canada between 1980 and 2000. We argue that existing data sources may miss changes in the tails of the income distribution, and that many of the changes in the income distribution have been in the tails. For this reason, we turn to an alternative source. In particular, we construct data on after-tax and transfer income using Census files augmented with predicted taxes based on information available from administrative tax data. Using these data, we find that Canadian after-tax inequality levels are substantially higher than has been previously recognized, primarily because income levels are lower at the bottom of the distribution than in commonly used survey data. We also find larger long-term increases in after-tax income inequality and far more variability over the economic cycle. This raises interesting questions about the role of the tax and transfer system in mitigating both trends and fluctuations in market income inequality.
{"title":"The Tale of the Tails: Canadian Income Inequality in the 1980s and 1990s","authors":"M. Frenette, D. Green, Kevin S. Milligan","doi":"10.1111/j.1365-2966.2007.00429.x","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2966.2007.00429.x","url":null,"abstract":"We present new evidence on levels and trends in after-tax income inequality in Canada between 1980 and 2000. We argue that existing data sources may miss changes in the tails of the income distribution, and that many of the changes in the income distribution have been in the tails. For this reason, we turn to an alternative source. In particular, we construct data on after-tax and transfer income using Census files augmented with predicted taxes based on information available from administrative tax data. Using these data, we find that Canadian after-tax inequality levels are substantially higher than has been previously recognized, primarily because income levels are lower at the bottom of the distribution than in commonly used survey data. We also find larger long-term increases in after-tax income inequality and far more variability over the economic cycle. This raises interesting questions about the role of the tax and transfer system in mitigating both trends and fluctuations in market income inequality.","PeriodicalId":232547,"journal":{"name":"Wiley-Blackwell: Canadian Journal of Economics","volume":"397 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2007-07-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124379897","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2007-07-20DOI: 10.1111/j.1365-2966.2007.00428.x
D. Hamermesh
This examination of the role and potential for replication in economics points out the paucity of both pure replication - checking on others' published papers using their data - and scientific replication - using data representing different populations in one's own work or in a comment. Several controversies in empirical economics are used to illustrate how and how not to behave when replicating others' work. The incentives for replication are examined, and proposals aimed at journal editors and authors are advanced that might stimulate an activity that most economists applaud but few perform.
{"title":"Viewpoint: Replication in Economics","authors":"D. Hamermesh","doi":"10.1111/j.1365-2966.2007.00428.x","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2966.2007.00428.x","url":null,"abstract":"This examination of the role and potential for replication in economics points out the paucity of both pure replication - checking on others' published papers using their data - and scientific replication - using data representing different populations in one's own work or in a comment. Several controversies in empirical economics are used to illustrate how and how not to behave when replicating others' work. The incentives for replication are examined, and proposals aimed at journal editors and authors are advanced that might stimulate an activity that most economists applaud but few perform.","PeriodicalId":232547,"journal":{"name":"Wiley-Blackwell: Canadian Journal of Economics","volume":"64 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2007-07-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126622050","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2007-07-20DOI: 10.1111/j.1365-2966.2007.00436.x
M. Emran, Forhad Shilpi, M. I. Alam
This paper presents evidence on the effects of economic liberalization of 1991 on the price responsiveness of aggregate private investment in India. The wide ranging reforms are expected to increase the price response of private investment due to (i) the Le Chatelier effect, (ii) a higher price elasticity of demand for final goods, and (iii) possible relaxation of the credit constraint. The empirical results, based on alternative specifications, estimation methods, and sample periods, show a dramatic increase in the price response; the elasticity of investment with respect to the relative cost of capital has increased five times after the dismantling of the `Licence Raj.'
{"title":"Economic Liberalization and Price Response of Aggregate Private Investment: Time Series Evidence from India","authors":"M. Emran, Forhad Shilpi, M. I. Alam","doi":"10.1111/j.1365-2966.2007.00436.x","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2966.2007.00436.x","url":null,"abstract":"This paper presents evidence on the effects of economic liberalization of 1991 on the price responsiveness of aggregate private investment in India. The wide ranging reforms are expected to increase the price response of private investment due to (i) the Le Chatelier effect, (ii) a higher price elasticity of demand for final goods, and (iii) possible relaxation of the credit constraint. The empirical results, based on alternative specifications, estimation methods, and sample periods, show a dramatic increase in the price response; the elasticity of investment with respect to the relative cost of capital has increased five times after the dismantling of the `Licence Raj.'","PeriodicalId":232547,"journal":{"name":"Wiley-Blackwell: Canadian Journal of Economics","volume":"45 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2007-07-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128353532","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2007-07-20DOI: 10.1111/j.1365-2966.2007.00437.x
John W. Galbraith, Greg Tkacz
The pattern of decay of forecast content (or skill) with increasing horizon is well known for many types of meteorological forecasts; by contrast, little generally accepted information about these patterns or content horizons is available for economic variables. In this paper we estimate content horizons for a variety of macroeconomic quantities; more generally, we characterize the pattern of decay of forecast content as we project farther into the future. We find a wide variety of results for the different macroeconomic quantities, with models for some quantities providing useful content several years into the future, for other quantities providing negligible content beyond one or two months or quarters.
{"title":"Forecast Content and Content Horizons for Some Important Macroeconomic Time Series","authors":"John W. Galbraith, Greg Tkacz","doi":"10.1111/j.1365-2966.2007.00437.x","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2966.2007.00437.x","url":null,"abstract":"The pattern of decay of forecast content (or skill) with increasing horizon is well known for many types of meteorological forecasts; by contrast, little generally accepted information about these patterns or content horizons is available for economic variables. In this paper we estimate content horizons for a variety of macroeconomic quantities; more generally, we characterize the pattern of decay of forecast content as we project farther into the future. We find a wide variety of results for the different macroeconomic quantities, with models for some quantities providing useful content several years into the future, for other quantities providing negligible content beyond one or two months or quarters.","PeriodicalId":232547,"journal":{"name":"Wiley-Blackwell: Canadian Journal of Economics","volume":"64 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2007-07-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130748564","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2007-05-14DOI: 10.1111/j.1365-2966.2007.00438.x
Hafedh Bouakez, Nooman Rebei
The present method and apparatus use image processing to determine information about the position of a designated object. The invention is particularly useful in applications where the object is difficult to view or locate. In particular, the invention is used in endoscopic surgery to determined positional information about an anatomical feature within a patient's body. The positional information is then used to position or reposition an instrument (surgical instrument) in relation to the designated object (anatomical feature). The invention comprises an instrument which is placed in relation to the designated object and which is capable of sending information about the object to a computer. Image processing methods are used to generated images of the object and determine positional information about it. This information can be used as input to robotic devices or can be rendered, in various ways (video graphics, speech synthesis), to a human user. Various input apparatus are attached to the transmitting or other used instruments to provide control inputs to the computer.
{"title":"Why Does Private Consumption Rise After a Government Spending Shock?","authors":"Hafedh Bouakez, Nooman Rebei","doi":"10.1111/j.1365-2966.2007.00438.x","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2966.2007.00438.x","url":null,"abstract":"The present method and apparatus use image processing to determine information about the position of a designated object. The invention is particularly useful in applications where the object is difficult to view or locate. In particular, the invention is used in endoscopic surgery to determined positional information about an anatomical feature within a patient's body. The positional information is then used to position or reposition an instrument (surgical instrument) in relation to the designated object (anatomical feature). The invention comprises an instrument which is placed in relation to the designated object and which is capable of sending information about the object to a computer. Image processing methods are used to generated images of the object and determine positional information about it. This information can be used as input to robotic devices or can be rendered, in various ways (video graphics, speech synthesis), to a human user. Various input apparatus are attached to the transmitting or other used instruments to provide control inputs to the computer.","PeriodicalId":232547,"journal":{"name":"Wiley-Blackwell: Canadian Journal of Economics","volume":"37 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2007-05-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125547019","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2006-05-01DOI: 10.1111/j.1365-2966.2007.00432.x
Benjamin H. Liebman, Kasaundra M. Tomlin
This paper analyses the steel safeguards applied during 2001-3. Results reveal that for shareholders of U.S. steel companies safeguards generated positive `abnormal' returns of approximately 6%. The cancellation of the safeguards resulted in wealth gains of about 5%. Steel shareholders experienced negative abnormal returns of 5% in response to the WTO ruling that the U.S. had violated WTO law. Our results are consistent with the neoclassical view that producers gain at the expense of consumers. Also, findings indicate that downstream-consuming firms that diversify production in NAFTA countries avert some trade policy risk associated with higher steel costs caused by safeguard protection.
{"title":"Steel Safeguards and the Welfare of U.S. Steel Firms and Downstream Consumers of Steel: A Shareholder Wealth Perspective","authors":"Benjamin H. Liebman, Kasaundra M. Tomlin","doi":"10.1111/j.1365-2966.2007.00432.x","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2966.2007.00432.x","url":null,"abstract":"This paper analyses the steel safeguards applied during 2001-3. Results reveal that for shareholders of U.S. steel companies safeguards generated positive `abnormal' returns of approximately 6%. The cancellation of the safeguards resulted in wealth gains of about 5%. Steel shareholders experienced negative abnormal returns of 5% in response to the WTO ruling that the U.S. had violated WTO law. Our results are consistent with the neoclassical view that producers gain at the expense of consumers. Also, findings indicate that downstream-consuming firms that diversify production in NAFTA countries avert some trade policy risk associated with higher steel costs caused by safeguard protection.","PeriodicalId":232547,"journal":{"name":"Wiley-Blackwell: Canadian Journal of Economics","volume":"2 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2006-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115338365","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2006-05-01DOI: 10.1111/j.0008-4085.2006.00355.x
M. Yano, Fumio Dei
. The introduction of a new product often causes a massive (discrete) demand shift to the new product. This study demonstrates that if a large-scale demand shift to a new product is accompanied by network externalities, it may result in ‘submarginal-cost pricing,’ by which the seller sets its price below the marginal cost. This finding casts new light on dumping and safeguard issues in the real world. JEL classification: D42 Externalites de reseaux, deplacements discrets de la demande, et tarification en deca du cout marginal. L’introduction d’un nouveau produit engendre souvent un deplacement massif (discret) de la demande vers le nouveau produit. Cette etude montre que si un tel deplacement de la demande est accompagne d’externalites de reseaux, il peut s’ensuivre une tarification en deca du cout marginal, ou le vendeur fixe son prix en dessous du cout marginal. Ce resultat jette une lumiere nouvelle sur les problemes de dumping et de protection dans le monde reel.
{"title":"Network Externalities, Discrete Demand Shifts, and Submarginal-Cost Pricing","authors":"M. Yano, Fumio Dei","doi":"10.1111/j.0008-4085.2006.00355.x","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/j.0008-4085.2006.00355.x","url":null,"abstract":". The introduction of a new product often causes a massive (discrete) demand shift to the new product. This study demonstrates that if a large-scale demand shift to a new product is accompanied by network externalities, it may result in ‘submarginal-cost pricing,’ by which the seller sets its price below the marginal cost. This finding casts new light on dumping and safeguard issues in the real world. JEL classification: D42 \u0000 \u0000 \u0000 \u0000Externalites de reseaux, deplacements discrets de la demande, et tarification en deca du cout marginal. L’introduction d’un nouveau produit engendre souvent un deplacement massif (discret) de la demande vers le nouveau produit. Cette etude montre que si un tel deplacement de la demande est accompagne d’externalites de reseaux, il peut s’ensuivre une tarification en deca du cout marginal, ou le vendeur fixe son prix en dessous du cout marginal. Ce resultat jette une lumiere nouvelle sur les problemes de dumping et de protection dans le monde reel.","PeriodicalId":232547,"journal":{"name":"Wiley-Blackwell: Canadian Journal of Economics","volume":"45 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2006-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123278500","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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