Modelling of multi-sectoral critical infrastructure interdependencies for vulnerability analysis

Jiwei Lin, T. Pan
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Abstract

Critical infrastructure such as the transportation, power generation, water supply, telecommunications, security and health services/systems, etc. are essential for providing a reliable flow of goods and services, crucial to the functioning of the economy and society. These infrastructures are closely linked and dependent on one another, and these interdependencies need to be modelled in order to analyse the disruptions and vulnerabilities of critical infrastructure networks as a whole. With increased, investment and complexity in the coupling of gas and electricity network, limitations and vulnerabilities of the coupled networks are becoming increasingly relevant to the operational planning of the critical infrastructures. Current modelling of a coupled gas and electricity network will be used in conjunction with nation input-output interdependency model to model physical critical infrastructures and critical infrastructure interdependencies, respectively. This research work will tackle two possible scenarios that might happen in the gas network while evaluating the cascading impact both in the physical model perspective and input-output interdependency model perspective. The results will provide insights on how disruption in the gas network affects the electricity grid and its corresponding economic impact on all economic sectors in a nation.
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为脆弱性分析建立多部门关键基础设施相互依赖关系模型
关键的基础设施,如运输、发电、供水、电信、安全和保健服务/系统等,对于提供可靠的货物和服务流动至关重要,对经济和社会的运作至关重要。这些基础设施紧密相连,相互依赖,需要对这些相互依赖关系进行建模,以便从整体上分析关键基础设施网络的中断和脆弱性。随着天然气和电力网络耦合投资的增加和复杂性的增加,耦合网络的局限性和脆弱性与关键基础设施的运营规划越来越相关。目前的耦合天然气和电力网络模型将与国家投入产出相互依赖关系模型一起使用,分别模拟物理关键基础设施和关键基础设施相互依赖关系。这项研究工作将解决天然气网络中可能发生的两种情况,同时从物理模型的角度和投入产出相互依赖模型的角度评估级联影响。研究结果将提供有关天然气网络中断如何影响电网及其对一个国家所有经济部门的相应经济影响的见解。
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