Analysis and Forecasting of COVID-19 Pandemic Using ARIMA Model

Abstract

The global community is now seriously threatened by the COVID-19 pandemic. The government of every nation must pay close attention to the analysis of this disease to take the required actions to lessen the impact of this worldwide epidemic. This research focused on the disease outbreak in the Indian region through July 21st, 2021, and evaluated the incidence and mortality. Machine learning techniques, such as the ARIMA model, are applied to perform the prediction analysis on collected data from the World Health Organization (WHO) official portal for India between January 20, 2020, and July 21, 2021. Mean Square Error (MSE), a measure of model performance, was used to assess performance, and it came in between 2170.636098 and 46.839689. In the four weeks of test data, the Expected instances are estimated to be between 192K and 230K, which is fairly similar to the actual figures. The government and physicians will be able to make future strategies with the aid of this study.