The political deduction and building political security In Sudan post of 2019

Hamsa Khatan Khalaf
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Abstract

 The political deduction in political security issues has become one of the topics that related with the attention of researchers and specialists. On the philosophical level, the deduction based on a certain reason to be as the basis for proving a specific issue that cannot be tackled by the existence of contradictions between two extremes - paradigm (Security and Instability). So that,  the future of political security in Sudan is still instability, although the international community's ability to impose their Comprehensive Peace Agreement since February 2005, and according to the requirements of what included in the clauses of the agreement to complete the procurement of democratic transition period, as for the Sudanese opposition forces and the Sudan People's Liberation Movement which are represented the real partners of power. So,  the ability of the National Congress Party at that time could have power to consolidate its inclusiveness as a dominant political party. From the another hand, the possibilities to infer the dimensions of political security in Sudan are ready to restore the army’s control over the political life, but with the need to maintain the settlement of critical political issues according to a new criteria that take into account the demands of civil forces; However, the civilian leadership was still inactive by as a result of internal divisions and rivalries within, so that the local, regional and international pressures remain to be the only source of strength to achieve a kind of consensus and satisfaction to overcome the critical period and accomplish what can be achieved for the benefit of the political security for Sudan, at the present and future alike. Finally, the absence of mechanisms for managing the divergent interests between civil and military leaders may lead to an unstable civil-military alliance, and they concern about losing of the whole absolute privileges and powers that they enjoyed during the past three decades for the rule of former President Omar al-Bashir, leaving the civilian leadership in 2019 to be as a drastically situation in its inability to form a united front that pushed towards neutralizing the military’s authority or resorting to confront a new period as a returning of violence as what happened in the past. As for the multiplicity of factors affecting on the political security crisis in Sudan, it meant that there is no real solution to subsequent crises in the future, so that the possibility of shifting towards civilian rule remains the only way to manage differences. And the differences between civilians and military alike might erupted at any reason or incentive.
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2019年苏丹政治演绎与政治安全建设
政治安全问题中的政治推演已成为相关研究者和专家关注的话题之一。在哲学层面上,演绎要以一定的理性为基础来证明一个具体的问题,即无法解决的两个极端——范式之间存在的矛盾(安全与不稳定)。因此,苏丹未来的政治安全仍然是不稳定的,尽管国际社会自2005年2月以来强行实施了《全面和平协议》,并根据协议条款所包含的要求完成了民主过渡期的采购,至于以苏丹反对派力量和苏丹人民解放运动为代表的真正的权力伙伴。因此,国民大会党在当时的能力可以巩固其作为主导政党的包容性。从另一方面来看,推断苏丹政治安全程度的可能性已准备好恢复军队对政治生活的控制,但有必要根据考虑到文职部队要求的新标准,继续解决关键的政治问题;然而,由于内部分裂和内部竞争,文职领导人仍然不活跃,因此,地方、区域和国际压力仍然是实现一种协商一致意见和满意的唯一力量来源,以克服这一关键时期,并完成目前和将来为苏丹政治安全所能取得的成就。最后,缺乏管理文官和军事领导人之间不同利益的机制可能导致不稳定的文官-军事联盟,他们担心失去他们在过去三十年前总统奥马尔·巴希尔统治期间所享有的全部绝对特权和权力。2019年,文职领导层无法形成统一战线,推动军事权威的中立化,或者像过去那样诉诸于面对暴力回归的新时期,这是一个严峻的局面。至于影响苏丹政治安全危机的多重因素,这意味着未来对随后的危机没有真正的解决办法,因此转向文官统治的可能性仍然是处理分歧的唯一途径。平民和军队之间的分歧可能会因为任何原因或动机而爆发。
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