From Preference to Policy: Wealth, Institutions of Government, and the Search for Democracy

Nolan Siegel
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Abstract

What is the nature of substantive representation within American institutions of government, and to what extent do constituents’ preferences turn into adopted policy? To answer these questions, I analyze data on federal policies proposed between 1964 and 2006 and constituents’ support for them by running a series of linear probability models to estimate the chance of policy adoption as a function of constituent support. I find the president is more responsive to constituents than Congress, and high-income constituents’ preferences – but not those of median- and low-income constituents – are significantly correlated with policies adopted by both Congress and the president.
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从偏好到政策:财富、政府机构和对民主的追求
美国政府机构中实质性代表制的本质是什么?选民的偏好在多大程度上转化为被采纳的政策?为了回答这些问题,我分析了1964年至2006年间提出的联邦政策的数据,以及选民对这些政策的支持,通过运行一系列线性概率模型来估计政策采纳的机会作为选民支持的函数。我发现总统对选民的反应比国会更积极,高收入选民的偏好——而不是中低收入选民的偏好——与国会和总统采取的政策显著相关。
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